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994 FXUS64 KMOB 300409AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL1109 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026...New DISCUSSION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. Hazards will include intense rain rates leading to localized flooding and brief gusty winds. For marine areas, waterspouts and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible.- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for local area beaches through Monday.- Heat index values of 95-100 trend higher by the middle of next week, potentially reaching 103-110.&&.DISCUSSION...Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026Late tonight, the main story remains to be what is denoted asInvest 97L, or a weak surface low about 125 miles south ofPensacola in our outer marine waters. Focusing in on the next12-18 hours taking a very close look at the latest HRRR/REFSguidance shows a persistent indication for convective initiationlater this morning through mid/late Sunday morning. Wanted to take a much closer look over this potential going through a suite of guidance and mesoscale analysis, which continues to reveal the main player being a combination of several factors: 1) Increasing differential friction speed convergence/directional confluence, which really sets off the CAM's with convective initiation later, as RAP sfc vorticity/convergence remains targeted right along the coast from Destin to coastal MS later tonight. Should landbreeze development help to switch winds more from the E to eventual ENE, this "squeeze" will increase aiding in even greater localized ascent. 2) Closely related to this, Invest 97L itself will steadily drift west, helping to promote more ESE to SE marine winds with time and, broad scale sfc to low-level confluence will support lift needed for marine convection later tonight. 3) Building overnight marine instability, which will be the fuel for where/if any storms develop. Taking a look at the latest00Z HREF run continues to target 3hr QPF PMM right along the coast from coastal Jackson Co, MS to coastal Mobile, Baldwin and perhaps near Pensacola from 09-15Z being the main targeted time. Comparably, the 18Z REFS 6hr PMM targets the same area, providing locally higher QPF values of 6-8" (some 10") between the I-10 corridor and perhaps just barely offshore. Will frankly say, should these ingredients come together, models support a localizedtargeted flash flood risk. If storms ignite along the west/east oriented convergence band, storms will be very capable of localized training/backbuilding given easterly 850mb moisture transport, opposite of corfidi upshear vectors from the west. The catch will be as previously mentioned, if enoughlift can ignite as widespread convection, and the location. Should the landbreeze be a bit more overcoming, the corridor could be just offshore. Regardless, given targeted consistency amongst more reliable CAM trends in the near-term, began to message this risk. Additionally, overall lowest 0-1km bulk shear being very low, low ML LCL, ample PW at 2.0"+, and steep 0-3km lapse rates will once again support an enhanced waterspout risk and given the proximity of potential convection to the beaches, could be photogenic again in some areas.If convection occurs similar to guidance, eventually this activitydrifts an outflow boundary north, north of the interstate intointerior MS/AL/FL which will combine to support lift alongsidedaytime diurnal destabilization for more inland activity. PoPsreveal this scenario well with lower PoPs for farther north asconfidence is a tad lower within drier vertical profile. Monday, as the surface low continues it's slow meandering journeywest across SE LA, we'll remain parked under SE to S flow foranother round of early AM marine convection and nearshorewaterspout/localized flash flooding risk. No major adjustments needed for temperatures today and Monday, but should convection along the coast be more overzealous, that could interfere with forecast highs and could be several, if not many degrees cooler just depending on how the diurnal curve is effected by delay and we clear out later, or clouds remain around the area, likely the former, thus, didn't touch temperatures too much this go around.Tuesday through there rest of the week, with ridging parked justto our north over the mid MS valley region, we'll continue to seeweak PVA/impulses riding east to west across the northern Gulfcoast to provide attendant energy/lift in conjunction with dailydestabilization/seabreeze development for routinemorning/afternoon shower/storm risks. Temperatures do climbsteadily with highs back into the mid 90's, but as we've beenmentioning, long-term forecast dewpoints provided by the NBMcontinue to not reflect a more realistic PBL mixing regime, meaning heat indices will remain likely lower in the 103-108 degree range. Still hot, regardless! But welcome to summer.Will end looking at the long-range as going over cluster analysisbetween the CMC, EPS and GEFS was pretty entertaining. Seeing a distinct split amongst guidance at several interesting scenario potentials. Namely, formerly Dolly OR additional disturbances riding west from the Bahamas potentially into the Gulf. Seeing spread on 1) The idea of the ridge once again retrograding west back to the four-corners region, helping to promote deeper east-coast troughing OR the ridge remains parked just about in place. Not going to get cute and weight out a laundry list of scenarios here, instead will mention low confidence in the extended. With the possibility of disturbances parading towards the area, it willrequire close monitoring because if the synoptic scale reveals any (even smaller) period of favorable tropical development in thevicinity of these disturbances, it is possible we could see something reform/or develop in the Gulf and from there, it's toughto say this early. So will finish by saying late week into next weekend/early the following week, just stay tuned. Especially if you have any upcoming travel plans and remember to pay attention to reliable sources. KLG&&.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS)Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026Ceilings will remain VFR through the period except within any showers and thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms begin sometime during the overnight into the early morning hours and chances will spread inland during the afternoon hours. The highest coverage is expected along the coast. These showers and storms are accompanied by stronger wind gusts and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. Winds will remain generally easterly through tomorrow morning and slowly shift southerly to southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon into the evening. SS/97&&.MARINE...Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026A weak low pressure center located about 125 miles south of Pensacola will continue to slowly drift westward away from the area over the next few days. However, this system will continue to bring local marine hazards including periods of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with squalls producing winds 34 knots or greater and a heightened risk for waterspouts. Outside of thunderstorm activity, moderate SE flow will persist st generally 10-15kts, higher for 20-60nm zones. Waves will respond in the 2 to approaching 3ft range, but winds and wave/seas relax more going into next week as the surface low drifts farther away from the local area. KLG&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 73 90 73 92 / 30 70 20 60 Pensacola 76 89 76 90 / 50 60 30 60 Destin 76 88 77 89 / 30 60 30 60 Evergreen 69 93 70 95 / 10 30 10 30 Waynesboro 72 94 72 96 / 10 30 10 20 Camden 71 93 72 94 / 10 20 10 10 Crestview 70 92 71 93 / 10 50 20 50 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$
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Topic: [Alert]MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 11:09 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... (Read 21 times)
