JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 4:50 AM EDT049
FXUS63 KJKL 100850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The remnants of tropical system Beryl tracks to our northwest
through the day, bringing a few light showers, mainly just early
this morning.
- The cold front passes through eastern Kentucky early this
morning, followed by somewhat cooler and less humid weather for
a couple of days.
- Hotter conditions will make a comeback as we move toward the
weekend and into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows the core of the low pressure system
containing Beryl's remains passing through the northern Ohio
Valley on its journey to eastern Canada. This is swinging a cold
front with a broken line of showers through eastern Kentucky ATTM
but these should fade out as they progress to the east. More
notable is a wind shift following the boundary that will see
southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph - while
winds are more southerly ahead of this - at 5 to 10 mph. In
addition, a deck of lower clouds follow the front into dawn.
Currently, mild temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are found
ahead of the shower band and wind shift while lower 70s trail it.
Dewpoints remain moist during this transition and are running in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the heart of a 5h shortwave trough
passing to the northeast of Kentucky on its way to the eastern
Great Lakes today. Once this passes, heights will only slowly
rebound, though, on account of the overall longwave pattern
downstream from the legendary ridge over the Desert Southwest
favoring troughing through the East. As such, the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley trough holds in place to the north of the state prolonging
weak southwest mid level flow, though with only limited energy
affecting our area after today through the short term. Given the
continued very small model spread have again favored the NBM as
the starting point for the forecast grids, though with still some
stronger winds added in for our north, closer to the sfc low,
through the afternoon. Did also adjust the already low NBM PoPs
into the evening with a hedge toward the latest CAMs consensus.
Sensible weather features a much more pleasant day with cooler
temperatures, limited sunshine, lower humidity, and breezy
southwest winds. There remains a small chance for a light
instability shower around in the wake of the sfc low but most
places will stay dry. The best chance for rain before the weekend
looks to be with the front passing early this morning but, even
then, less than a tenth of an inch will fall for most (not what
we would have hoped for when the idea of a tropical system
becoming absorbed into the westerlies and heading this way became
the forecast several days ago). Clearing and drier conditions
tonight will mean a return of a small to moderate ridge to valley
temperature split and valley fog development. Thursday will still
be mainly pleasant but 5 or so degrees warmer on account of
neutral advection and returning sunshine - along with much lighter
winds.
The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting
the PoPs for the latest consensus from the CAMs through the
evening - along with slightly higher winds/gusts for the
northern portion of the area through the afternoon. The NBM
temperatures were also adjusted to account for more terrain
details tonight into Thursday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
The models have maintained overall good agreement through early
next week. Prominent ridging across the western Atlantic as well
as the West will gradually put the squeeze on a positively tilted
trough positioned from the eastern Great Lakes through the lower
Mississippi Valley through this weekend, allowing for mainly dry
weather and gradually building heat once again over the portions
of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Early next week, the ridge will
lose its grip a bit east of the Mississippi River, as broader
troughing consolidates across the northeastern CONUS, thanks to
passing short wave energy moving through southern Canada. At the
surface, high pressure will mainly control across the central and
southern Appalachians through the weekend, before a cold front
eventually approaches the Ohio Valley from the northwest towards
the end of the period, allowing for enough moisture return for at
least isolated diurnally-driven convection.
Cooler air will be short-lived across eastern Kentucky, as highs
return to around 90 by Friday. Temperatures will continue to climb
through the weekend and early next week, with highs averaging in
the low to mid 90s each day. Blended guidance continues to look
biased a bit on the warm-side, and have stayed closer to the MOS
output. Fortunately, dew points look to be bit slower to rise
through Monday, with these readings peaking at just under 70
degrees, keeping heat indices not much more above the actual
temperature. On Tuesday, dew points will be climbing back to near
or just above 70 degrees, along with a return of slight chance
(20%) PoPs in the afternoon and early evening hours by that time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
MVFR flight conditions are expected for a period of time from
early this morning through much of the day, impacting our western
most terminals (KSME, KLOZ, KSYM) more prominently. KJKL will see
a shorter window of MVFR from around dawn until early afternoon.
KSJS will likely be spared of any impacts and remain VFR through
the period. The remnants of Beryl will continue to lift northward
through the eastern Great Lakes while dragging a surface cold
front through eastern Kentucky early this morning. Some isolated
shower activity can not be totally ruled out along and ahead of
this surface front. But activity will likely remain isolated as
the bulk of moisture and energy shifts northward. Sfc winds will
be light, generally from the south at 5-10 kts or less through the
rest of the night below some LLWS from the south southwest at 40
kts. Winds then pick up veering out of the southwest and
eventually from the west post FROPA through the day, increasingly
to around 10 kts with higher gusts to around 20 kts, at times.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 4:50 AM EDT---------------
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