LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 3:09 AM EDT892
FXUS63 KLMK 100709
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
309 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy and cooler to end the week with temperatures 5 to 10
degrees below normal.
* Gusty showers possible, mainly northeast of Louisville Saturday
afternoon.
* Active pattern next week with daily chances of showers and
storms Monday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected
through at least Tuesday. Strong storm chances may increase
slightly by Wednesday and again Friday, but confidence is low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
The first of a series of shortwave troughs will be located across
southern IN and the Ohio River this morning. It will push a mid-
level vort max and a weak sfc bounary through the area this morning
into the early afternoon. Current GOES-16 nighttime microphysics
satellite imagery shows a band of low stratus just north of the Ohio
River into southern IN and all of Ohio. These clouds will spread
southward during the pre-dawn hours and there is a small chance we
could see a few sprinkles or pockets of drizzle but most will remain
dry during the morning hours.
As the boundary drops south into central and southern KY during the
day, winds will become northerly and a bit breezy with sustained
winds around 10 mph and gusts of 20 to 25 mph. The northerly flow
will advect in colder air to make for a below normal and brisk end
to the week. Clouds are expect to slowly clear out towards the
afternoon, but depending on quickly the clear out from north to
south temperatures should mainly be in the mid/upper 60s but if we
get more sunshine to the north a few locations could top out to near
or even low 70s. There is also a slight chance of afternoon showers
around the Lake Cumberland region close to the departing boundary
and shortwave.
Skies will clear and winds will dimininish during the evenining.
This will lead to temperatures in the 40s to near 50 overnight. The
second shortwave trough will drop out of the Great Lakes and into
the Ohio Valley overnight and be just north of thRivere Ohio River
in southern IN tomorrow morning. This will increase cloud cover
towards daybreak tomorrow and start to increase the chance of a few
showers towards dawn.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Saturday...
An intense shortwave (trop fold down to 500mb) will rotate through
the Great Lakes region on Saturday. There looks to be a decent
amount of moisture in the 850-700mb layer that will accompany the
shortwave, especially across our NE CWA. Forecast soundings show
very steep low level lapse rates from late morning through the
afternoon, with some healthy positive area below the inversion
around 700 mb. Given that, expect scattered showers to rotate
through our region, with the best coverage across our NE where
moisture is most impressive. Also noticing that the BL will be mixed
up into a 30 knot layer, which will support gusty conditions at the
surface. Will advertise gusts mostly in the 25 to 30 mph range
through the afternoon. A few gusts will likely reach 35 mph,
especially with shower activity. Look for temps peaking in the 70 to
75 degree range, but the gusty winds may make this day feel a bit
cooler than reality.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
The rest of the weekend looks dry with surface high pressure in
place beneath dry NW flow aloft. Highs on Sunday should be a bit
milder, and more solidly into the mid 70s for many. Look for 40s to
around 50 for lows on Saturday night, and a milder night in the low
and mid 50s heading into Monday morning.
Monday - Wednesday...
Our chances for more widespread showers and a few storms picks up
again through the early to mid week timeframe as a closed low
meandering over the easter Plains gets picked up by the northern
stream westerlies and ejects into our region. This feature is
expected to be pretty moisture laden given its original Pacific
origin, and slow movement drawing plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture
as well. As a result, forecast soundings take on a tall/skinny
profile in conjunction with PWATs up around 1.5 through the column.
Doesn't appear to be a whole lot of instability to work with, but
enough to warrant continue thunderstorm mention.
Highs should mostly be in the mid/upper 70s through this stretch,
although could see temps struggling a bit under a moist, showery,
and cloudy setup. Diurnal ranges should generally be smaller in this
setup, so looking for milder nights only dropping down around 60 for
most.
Wednesday Night - Thursday...
Decent confidence for a brief dry spell Wednesday night into
Thursday beneath shortwave ridging and surface high pressure in the
wake of the mid week system. Looking for highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s under partly sunny skies. The brief dry spell will be
welcome as another, and possibly stronger system, arrives to end the
work week. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms look
possible then. Pattern looks like it could support some stronger
storms. Something to watch through next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Shortwave trough producing low stratus and pockets of sprinkles
currently across central and southern IN will continue to drop
southward through the pre-dawn hours. This bring CIGS to MVFR
ranging from around 1500-2500ft. Some of the guidance wants to bring
some CIGS to around IFR (< 1000Ft) but didn't feel the confidence
based on current obs warranted putting them in the forecast. Winds
will also become more northerly as the boundary works through and
keeping winds there through the day to around 10-15kts.
Clouds slowly clear out later this afternoon from north to south and
become more scattered returning to VFR. Winds remain northerly but
also diminish some as we go into the evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 3:09 AM EDT---------------
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