MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 1:11 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...969
FXUS64 KMOB 261811
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
- Shower and thunderstorm chances will steadily increase in
coverage each afternoon through Friday, gradually diminishing
this weekend. Storms will be capable of producing strong to
locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.
- Summer continues across the area with heat indices topping out
at around 100-107 degrees each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
A broad mid-level trough will amplify through the day and dig
southward as a ridge to our west retrogrades. This will place the
forecast area under stronger northwest flow aloft through the end
of the work week. Several shortwaves are expected to rotate
around the base of the trough, enhancing the forcing over the
area. Given the moist airmass, PWs near 2 inches, this forcing
will aid in afternoon convection, which we're starting to see over
our northwest counties. A few storms may develop strong enough
updrafts to produce gusty winds this afternoon. Otherwise, temps
will climb into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon.
The trough will continue to amplify overnight, while surface flow
remains relatively weak. Meanwhile, a cluster of storms currently
moving through the Midsouth will likely spark additional outflows
through the afternoon. Guidance is picking up on these boundaries
and developing additional thunderstorms overnight. Given the
forcing aloft as a shortwave traverses the region, storms are
expected to continue overnight, reaching our northern zones early
Thursday morning. There are a lot of discrepancies on timing and
location, but there's enough consensus to warrant scattered to
numerous PoPs beginning early Thursday morning. An inversion
overnight may alleviate the potential for any of these storms
becoming severe; however, I'm not too confident that we will cool
as much as guidance is suggesting. So, all of that is to say
we'll likely begin to see thunderstorms developing near sunrise,
with a potential for a couple of rounds of thunderstorms through
the day. The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy
rainfall. Where storms train over the same area or if rainfall
rates are high enough, some flash flooding is possible.
Although the bulk of precip will come to an end Thursday evening, a
boundary is expected to stall in the vicinity of the area, though
uncertainty remains high on exactly where this boundary stalls. The
trough will remain over the area on Friday, with additional
thunderstorms expected to develop along the boundary. At this point,
the most likely areas to see storms will be along and east/south of
I-65. This may change over the next day or two, as we gain more
clarity on where the boundary stalls. Rain chances will decrease
through the weekend as the ridge to our west pushes east and the
trough exits the area. /73
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, but
with lower confidence, have opted to keep the PROP30 group. This
activity will come to an end around sunset. Additional storms are
possible Thursday morning and may be included in subsequent
updates as confidence increases. /73
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /73
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 89 71 88 / 30 80 50 70
Pensacola 76 88 74 87 / 30 80 60 60
Destin 77 87 75 86 / 40 80 50 50
Evergreen 70 90 69 89 / 40 80 40 70
Waynesboro 72 91 70 92 / 50 60 50 50
Camden 72 88 71 89 / 40 70 50 60
Crestview 71 90 70 87 / 30 70 40 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 1:11 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...---------------
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