PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 11:34 PM CDT479
FXUS63 KPAH 230434
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1134 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 20-40% chance of widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. An isolated gusty strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out, with the greatest risk over
southeast Missouri.
- A 30-40% chance of patchy fog is possible early Sunday
morning, especially across portions of western Kentucky and
southeast Missouri.
- Temperatures and humidity levels will be seasonable next week
with a 20-30% chance of daily isolated showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
A trailing cold front associated with sfc low pressure over the
Great Lakes region is pushing south across the FA. While most of the
CAMs have very little development along the boundary this afternoon,
the NSSL/RRFS still support some development that is currently
ongoing south of STL. Have increased NBM PoPs to a 20-40%
chance across the southern counties where dewpoints will remain
higher near 70 degrees. This translates to 3000 to 4000 J/kg of
SBCAPE with about 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Combined with
1000 J/kg of DCAPE and 8.0 to 8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates,
the main concern will be damaging winds where SPC has a D1
marginal. Overall, expecting coverage to be sparse at best, but
the probability is the greatest over southeast Missouri.
For tonight, a sfc ridge of high pressure begins to build south from
Manitoba as a broad upper-level trough settles over the Ohio Valley
with northwest flow. Clear skies will allow for the boundary layer
to decouple, with a 30-40% chance of patchy fog. The greatest
coverage is favored south of the Ohio River where the crossover
temperature will be higher. Otherwise, the FA will be between a
western 597 dm ridge over the southwest CONUS and a trough in
the northeast that will send a series of shortwaves downstream
through the week. Rain chances are pretty sporadic at a 20-30%
chance as the timing is highly variable. Not seeing a strong
signal for severe weather, but may need to keep an eye on
Wednesday when a warm front lifts north. The heat and humidity
will remain at seasonable levels for the latter half of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Fog potential tonight looks a little tricky since models don't
seem to be picking up on the signal that much, but last night's
set up being very similar to tonight and climo, lends itself to
at least patchy fog development at CGI, MVN, and PAH. Aside from
the fog potential tonight, winds should be mainly calm overnight
with clear skies. Tomorrow winds will be out of the northwest at
around 5-7 kts. High cloud cover increases tomorrow through the
day and into the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...HICKFORD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 11:34 PM CDT---------------
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