The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 21, 16:24z for portions of IWX915
WUUS01 KWNS 211625
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VALID TIME 211630Z - 221200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 42559074 42768985 42708771 41638771 40588824 40208919
40039015 40199100 40669154 41759140 42559074
0.02 41720224 42420269 42900259 43020156 42499984 42149876
41859851 41329910 41160029 41400170 41720224
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 32337819 33728140 34618236 35378239 36208200 36888046
37007790 36487518
0.05 43740069 42809787 41879620 40959453 40939334 41339228
41959143 42759096 44858869 45298785 45078715 43148732
41488708 40588755 39828838 39268952 39069222 38919329
38289564 38219822 38520118 38760183 39400245 40450304
41490334 42320354 43120380 44050370 44340277 43740069
0.15 40330162 41780260 43520329 43770267 43460153 42499878
41909735 41469634 40979589 40339572 39329635 39199695
39209805 39390002 39590099 40330162
0.15 41619084 42599043 42768985 42708781 41718751 41208753
40788783 40458830 39989008 40039078 40159119 40659147
41619084
CIG1 42809915 41849669 41449595 41019564 40369546 40029573
40009722 40270038 40700189 41000227 42470321 43710348
43940277 42809915
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 41528620 40638677 40068751 39088868 38709032 39049222
38899330 38089428 37419542 37269644 37329731 38039967
38120075 38290163 38770288 41460407 43190392 44050370
44340277 44100191 42799787 41859615 40949450 40949333
41339227 41979139 42739094 43369033 44938865 45278787
45028695 44468638 42518570 41528620
0.05 28448009 28368074 28518101 28858124 30478181 30898211
30968251 29868839 29348962 29089078 29289200 29769329
29939427 30389496 32619743 33179774 33619751 33849698
33539401 32959316 32339217 32209085 32438839 32838550
33078456 33458393 33988351 35028327 35618295 36238198
36888047 37007783 36487516
0.05 40681636 41871658 43411580 43791449 43761221 43371164
40251203 39781258 39511348 39821572 40681636
0.15 33158219 35128114 35738007 36057911 36007780 35637699
35177693 34977706 34597785 34127873 33527988 32758050
32508157 33158219
0.15 42579044 42768987 42698751 41498711 41098740 40448827
39999005 40039076 40159119 40669146 41629085 42579044
0.15 42339928 41269715 40639632 39889603 39269638 38989689
38839754 39110007 39580099 40350163 41150216 41770260
42100264 42590231 42770142 42339928
0.15 29589077 30559371 31019496 31809552 32439521 32569456
32129352 31739189 31818877 31458797 30788793 30338806
30228930 29619023 29589077
CIG1 40829818 39979711 39179630 38549581 37959554 37629576
37639668 37859774 38349959 38640159 39160227 39950282
41830351 43400327 43740271 43380152 42580052 41579926
40829818
CIG1 40671636 41871657 43411579 43791446 43751220 43361165
40251203 39771259 39511347 39831568 40671636
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 32439521 32569456 32129352 31739189 31818877 31458797
30788793 30338806 30228930 29619023 29589077 31019496
31809552 32439521
SLGT 35128114 35738007 36057911 36007780 35637699 35177693
34977706 33527988 32758050 32508157 33158219 35128114
SLGT 43770267 43460153 42499878 41909735 41469634 40979589
40339572 39269638 38989689 38839754 39110007 39580099
40330162 41770260 43520329 43770267
SLGT 41629085 42599043 42768987 42698751 41498711 41098740
40448827 39989008 40039078 40159119 40659147 41629085
MRGL 28448009 28368074 28518101 28858124 30478181 30898211
30968251 29868839 29348962 29089078 29289200 29769329
29939427 30389496 32619743 33179774 33619751 33849698
33539401 32339217 32209085 32438839 32838550 33078456
33458393 33988351 35028327 35618295 36238198 36888047
37007783 36487517
MRGL 43190392 44050370 44340277 43740069 42809787 40959452
40949333 41339228 41959143 42759096 44938865 45298785
45028695 44468638 42518570 41528620 40638677 39088868
38709032 39049222 38899330 38089428 37419542 37269644
37329731 38039967 38120075 38290163 38770288 41460407
43190392
MRGL 43411580 43791449 43761221 43371164 40251203 39781258
39511348 39821572 40681636 41871658 43411580
TSTM 37608713 37498851 37708991 38179074 38289134 38159229
37749365 37369396 36839407 36549381 36389323 35949238
35539208 35089202 34159248 33879228 33559202 33359152
33289107 33409057 33599028 34418970 34738908 34898837
34958772 35358719 36238686 37138666 37418663 37598688
37608713 99999999 43228010 42208060 40818188 40188261
39658279 39308264 39068215 39268128 39758032 39967930
39867797 39307587 38857432 99999999 28649497 29369577
30819678 32259880 33000040 32670285 32010664 31480749
99999999 32281691 33841712 34501703 35341665 35931626
36581625 37201656 38081845 38511871 39441867 39981843
41971731 43991626 45271483 45651398 45841240 45281091
44670917 44310837 43810769 43100714 42940653 43120576
43450518 44530481 44920420 45000290 44690105 44269923
43299659 42369518 42089452 42199377 42659297 43659182
44579099 45179064 45639074 45959103 45959143 45849209
45489316 45489401 45529546 45489725 45930014 47020370
47650449 48020447 48240364 48160220 47490032 46919845
46809735 46839686 47019611 47619578 48359658 48719764
48979853 49579941 99999999 49422034 48592046 47302056
45822048 43872056 43402060 43142094 43042134 43062188
43252218 44022233 45622225 46302248 46712329 47022408
47732445 48052430 48202382 48102313 47902296 47292320
47002288 47102235 47572213 49492272
&&
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10
ENE TYR 15 NE GGG 30 SE SHV 35 NE ESF 35 S MEI 55 NNE MOB 20 ENE
MOB 25 SSE MOB 20 SW GPT 25 S MSY 0 - HUM 20 SW LFK 40 S TYR 10
ENE TYR
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15
WSW CLT 25 SSW GSO 25 NW RDU 10 NNE RWI 40 N EWN 10 NE EWN 0 -
EWN 45 NNE CHS 30 WSW CHS 35 NW SAV 20 SW AGS 15 WSW CLT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25
SE RAP 40 S PHP 0 - ONL 0 - OFK 25 SSW TQE 25 S OMA 20 NNW FNB
20 ENE MHK 15 SW MHK 0 - SLN 25 SW HLC 50 SSW MCK 15 S IML 20 SSE
AIA 40 SSW RAP 25 SE RAP
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20
WNW MLI 20 NE DBQ 35 SSE LNR 15 ESE RAC 0 - VPZ 30 SW VPZ 30 N
CMI 25 WNW SPI 25 ENE UIN 15 N UIN 20 WSW BRL 20 WNW MLI
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NE MLB 20 NNW MLB 20 E ORL 20 NNE ORL 10 WSW JAX 30 SE AYS 20
SSW AYS 55 S MOB 15 W BVE 35 S HUM 35 SSE 7R4 25 S LCH 15 W BPT 40
SE UTS 15 SSW FTW 30 NW FTW 55 N FTW 20 WNW GYI 0 - TXK 15 SSW
MLU 50 NNE HEZ 20 ENE MEI 15 NNW AUO 30 E LGC 30 ESE ATL 10 WNW
AHN 50 NW AND 20 SSW HSS 30 SE TRI 20 SE PSK 25 NNE AVC 60 ENE ECG
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 WNW CDR 30 W RAP 25 NE RAP 50 SSW PIR 25 WSW YKN 40 NW LWD 25
SSW OXV 20 NNE OTM 15 ENE CID 25 NNW DBQ 40 NW GRB 40 SSE IMT 50 S
ESC 15 NNW MBL 20 NNW AZO 15 SSE SBN 15 NNE LAF 35 NNE SLO 0 -
STL 15 N COU 20 NE SZL 60 SSE OJC 20 S CNU 40 NW BVO 25 SSE ICT 25
NE DDC 15 N GCK 55 WNW GCK 50 NNW LAA 40 S TOR 50 WNW CDR
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE BOI 20 NNW SUN 20 NNW IDA 25 ESE IDA 35 S SLC 30 N U24 55
SSW DPG 25 NNE P68 25 ENE BAM 20 WSW OWY 25 ESE BOI
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE OWB 30 NNE
PAH 30 E FAM 30 NNW FAM 25 ENE VIH 30 NNW TBN 40 NNW SGF 35 N UMN
10 WSW UMN 25 SSE UMN 10 NNW HRO 20 SSE FLP 30 WSW BVX 30 NNE LIT
30 W PBF 30 SW PBF 15 WSW LLQ 25 SSE LLQ 15 SSW GLH 25 ESE GLH 15
WNW GWO 10 WNW UOX 35 NNW TUP 50 NNE TUP 15 NNW MSL 50 NNE MSL 10
NW BNA 15 NW BWG 35 NNW BWG 20 ESE OWB 10 SSE OWB ...CONT... 80 N
ERI 25 WNW ERI 25 WSW CAK 20 NE CMH 25 S CMH 25 WNW UNI 10 SSE UNI
10 SE PKB 20 WNW MGW 25 SSE LBE 15 NW HGR 25 WNW DOV 45 SSE ACY
...CONT... 45 SE LBX 25 NW LBX 30 WNW CLL 30 NNE BWD 60 NW ABI 20
E HOB 20 NW ELP 55 SSE DMN ...CONT... 35 SSE SAN 20 ESE RAL 30 SSW
DAG 35 NNE DAG 55 SSW DRA 15 WSW DRA 50 NW DRA 50 N BIH 70 S NFL
0 - NFL 10 SE LOL 50 SE REO 30 N BOI 45 WNW SMN 35 N SMN 10 SSE
BTM 35 SSE BZN 15 NW COD 30 NW WRL 20 SE WRL 35 WNW CPR 0 - CPR
30 NW DGW 50 N DGW 40 ENE GCC 55 SW 2WX 50 SE 2WX 45 WNW PIR 35 N
9V9 20 SSE FSD 15 S SLB 35 SSW FOD 35 SE FOD 30 WNW ALO 35 WSW LSE
30 SE EAU 45 ENE EAU 65 S ASX 40 S ASX 45 SSW ASX 70 S DLH 40 N
MSP 0 - STC 25 S AXN 40 N ATY 30 NNE MBG 50 SSE SDY 15 WSW SDY 25
NNW SDY 0 - ISN 50 NW N60 55 NNE BIS 10 E JMS 25 WSW FAR 0 - FAR
15 NW DTL 35 SSE TVF 25 NW TVF 30 W HCO 60 NNE DVL 105 NNW DVL
...CONT... 75 NNW OMK 45 WNW OMK 20 WSW EAT 35 ENE DLS 40 SE RDM
65 SSE RDM 70 NNW LKV 65 NNE LMT 65 N LMT 70 NNE MFR 45 E EUG 15 E
PDX 50 N PDX 25 SW OLM 10 WNW HQM 15 SSE UIL 15 ENE UIL 15 WNW CLM
15 E CLM 30 ESE CLM 25 NNW OLM 0 - OLM 25 S SEA 10 NE SEA 50 N
BLI
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 21, 16:24z for portions of IWX---------------
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