WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 19, 6:20 PM CDT104
AGUS74 KWCO 192328
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #190 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
620 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash flooding and rapid small stream rises
possible
WHERE: Central Indiana and Ohio
WHEN: Through the overnight hours
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS?
QPF: 2 - 4" (HRRR, WPC)
Rates: 1 - 2"/hr (HRRR, WPC)
Soil Moisture: Wet (50 - 75% RSM, 0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Elevated (Observed, USGS)
DISCUSSION:
Flash flooding and rapid small stream rises are possible across the
area of concern as slow-moving storms move across the area through
the overnight hours. Near surface soils are on the wetter side
following recent heavy rainfall suggesting any rainfall could quickly
be converted into runoff. Streamflows show a similar trend with most
streams running greater than the 90th percentile for historic flows
indicating reduced channel capacity.
The National Water Model (NWM) is starting to show more organized and
robust streamflow responses across the region with the most robust
peak flow arrival times beginning in the next couple hours and
continuing through the overnight hours. Additionally, the maximum
highflow magnitude service shows areas of highis evening
magnitude crests withis evening
is evening
annual exceedance probabilities for streamflows lower than 4% (higher
magnitude flows; shown right), while the NWM Unit Discharge Service
suggests isolated responses on smaller order streams with unit
discharge greater than 500 cfs/sqmi, both suggesting the potential
for out of bank flows. Given these factors, flash flooding and rapid
small stream rises will be possible. The overnight timing may make
the flooding more dangerous.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Smith
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...ILN...CLE...IWX...IND...RLX
ATTN...RFC...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 19, 6:20 PM CDT---------------
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