The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 18, 14:10z for portions of IWX178
WUUS01 KWNS 181412
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VALID TIME 181300Z - 191200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 39049953 39400126 39820180 40390155 40660113 40740037
40759989 40759896 40259657 39759500 39559470 39129426
38689426 38409448 38059487 37969541 38179659 38659835
39049953
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 41419688 40529500 40159352 39739210 38999141 38259140
37829167 37459255 37229289 37099357 37109425 37739946
38230213 38910422 40460555 41590660 44930955 46141071
47021114 47631102 47911071 48201020 48370942 48280846
47940755 47040643 45540486 45040376 44650226 44380014
44129968 43829903 43239829 42229751 41419688
0.05 45178503 44878503 44428466 44138495 43628573 43118709
42458820 42038979 42029191 42539304 42999352 43449316
43799202 44109091 44548921 45098681 45188571 45178567
45178503
0.15 39489829 39999812 40149741 40179692 40179632 39839510
39139371 38429361 38119421 38179542 38309671 38529758
39489829
CIG1 39209989 39260114 39710171 40320155 40610101 40699889
40549798 40149752 39839733 39349773 39139857 39159908
39209989
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 37589841 37759957 37980210 38750379 40610568 42130720
43310872 43500927 43520986 43551074 43511177 43541283
43771322 44011340 44781355 46031305 46871222 47601163
47991104 48181022 48350930 48290850 47940753 47090648
45500482 45030374 44650226 44390010 44219671 44109277
44079054 44878754 45588573 46068422 46128314 45648199
44928174 44198193 43368253 42848349 42258481 41758575
41228734 39808885 38208902 37298979 36609076 36609177
37059379 37189497 37589841
0.05 33179076 33719052 34178989 34188900 34008823 33668731
33138681 32688661 32198656 31448712 31198802 31488931
31718985 32309045 33179076
0.15 38479757 38979784 39809785 40119741 40129681 40009603
39679433 39249249 38769206 38429206 37999250 37719356
37799412 37819448 38219684 38479757
CIG1 39679492 39419455 39109429 38699429 38209464 38009526
38079583 38339732 38380056 38500194 38830384 40470547
41410640 43330877 43670970 43831033 44101106 44741158
45521183 45831182 46211142 46741086 47011014 47130900
47080776 46510588 45470484 44630316 43790194 42600031
41779881 40849723 40419647 40059585 39679492
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 39999812 40149741 40179632 39819507 39249249 38769206
38429206 37999250 37719356 38219684 38479757 39489829
39999812
MRGL 33719052 34178989 34188900 34008823 33668731 33138681
32688661 32198656 31448712 31198802 31488931 31718985
32309045 33179076 33719052
MRGL 44198193 43368253 41758575 41228734 39808885 38208902
37298979 36609076 36609177 37059379 37759957 37980210
38910422 40460555 42130720 43310872 43500927 43541283
43771322 44011340 44781355 46031305 46871222 47601163
47991104 48370942 48290850 47940753 47090648 45540486
45040376 44650226 44390010 44219671 44089100 45008722
45588573 46068422 46128314
TSTM 44857664 42227861 41468016 41178358 40518711 39648806
38018838 36758946 35939056 36189225 36679408 36759592
36709755 36919934 36950147 36280293 35180323 33500511
33000678 32310806 31820823 31250778 99999999 31611342
32771240 33331242 33951266 34781289 35431231 35721090
36100902 36690727 36960584 37190539 37770578 38160582
38900608 39180681 39110832 38591019 38631121 39831238
40891421 41791450 42731415 43171476 43781546 44511554
45321584 46101563 47081495 48061586 49581767 99999999
28558997 30219208 31439329 33249370 34579264 34659110
34818984 34308805 33628656 32868467 32648299 33048117
33867980 34737933 35757968 37377988 37997964 38327883
38217797 37897632 37737456 37757413 99999999 50060450
48460359 47220338 46450273 45890100 45739884 46059584
45539105 46118957 46978636 47748518 48278454 99999999
25737937 25708022 25938171 26538258 26718316
&&
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40
NW CNK 45 NNE CNK 25 ESE BIE 10 WNW STJ 30 NNW COU 10 ESE COU 15
SSE JEF 25 NW TBN 35 NNW SGF 35 WSW EMP 25 S SLN 35 W CNK 40 NW
CNK
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WNW GWO 25 SW UOX 15 WSW TUP 30 NNE CBM 35 NNE TCL 30 S BHM 30
NNW MGM 10 SW MGM 0 - GZH 40 NNE MOB 0 - PIB 35 WNW PIB 20 W JAN
25 SSE GLH 30 WNW GWO
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 ENE BAX 35 SE BAX 35 SSW AZO 25 SW VPZ 0 - DEC 10 SW MVN 15
WNW CGI 20 SW POF 10 SSE UNO 15 NNE UMN 20 E DDC 30 E LAA 30 ENE
COS 30 W FCL 25 N RWL 20 NW RIW 55 NNW LND 45 NNW PIH 65 NNW PIH
55 NE SUN 30 SE SMN 25 WNW BTM 20 NNW HLN 15 NW GTF 40 NNE GTF 20
SE HVR 60 ESE HVR 45 WSW GGW 55 NNW MLS 25 ENE 4BQ 40 SSW 2WX 55
NW PHP 10 E PIR 10 SE BKX 20 NE LSE 50 S ESC 60 N TVC 30 SSE ANJ
75 NNE APN
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ART 30 N BFD
15 WNW FKL 10 NNE FDY 10 WNW LAF 15 NE MTO 35 SE MVN 35 S CGI 10
NE JBR 10 E FLP 20 SW UMN 0 - BVO 25 W PNC 40 WNW AVK 20 N GUY 15
SE CAO 20 E TCC 25 E SRR 30 ESE TCS 25 SSE SVC 40 SW DMN 70 S DMN
...CONT... 100 SSW GBN 20 ESE GBN 25 WSW PHX 50 SSW PRC 30 WNW PRC
35 SSW GCN 50 NNW INW 40 NNW GUP 40 SE DRO 30 S ALS 30 ESE ALS 25
NNE ALS 50 N ALS 50 ESE ASE 0 - ASE 10 E GJT 30 S U28 30 WNW 4HV
30 NNE U24 15 NW ENV 50 S TWF 25 NE TWF 30 SW SUN 40 ENE BOI 40 SE
MYL 35 NNE MYL 0 - P69 40 SSE 3TH 40 NW 3TH 135 N GEG ...CONT...
65 SSW BVE 0 - LFT 25 SSW IER 25 SE TXK 25 WSW LIT 60 NE PBF 20
SSE MEM 40 SW MSL 10 ENE BHM 25 ESE LGC 40 E MCN 35 SSW OGB 25 SSW
FLO 35 S SOP 30 SSE GSO 0 - ROA 40 ENE SSU 0 - SHD 25 ENE CHO 25
SSE NHK 50 ESE WAL 75 E WAL ...CONT... 135 NNW ISN 20 N ISN 40 NW
DIK 25 S DIK 35 NW MBG 30 NW ABR 25 WNW AXN 50 NNE EAU 35 N RHI 65
ENE MQT 95 NNW ANJ 125 N ANJ ...CONT... 55 E MIA 10 SSE MIA 15 SSE
APF 45 W FMY 60 SW SRQ
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 18, 14:10z for portions of IWX---------------
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