The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 17, 20:03z for portions of LMK109
WUUS01 KWNS 172005
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
VALID TIME 172000Z - 181200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 40669992 40760105 41130149 42090150 43010122 43510083
43970019 44569872 44749805 45299730 45919685 46729616
46729472 46089453 44709510 43529554 42659649 42029687
41599732 41289767 40749907 40669992
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 39610025 39600107 39970204 40710293 41580404 44470493
45720398 46250330 46250267 46160102 46119955 46209903
46379858 46659780 47489689 48149573 48039425 47579295
46899304 45519398 44699416 44099418 43439440 42599487
41649571 40719678 40039793 39759907 39610025
0.15 40669998 40760098 41060194 42150293 43840331 45150259
45440133 45250027 44959933 44859796 45359759 46529660
47089615 46919503 46239454 43859473 43279559 42609638
42019678 41229768 40749905 40669998
CIG1 41979819 41249928 41120179 42060344 43510340 44570329
45580249 45700174 45370061 44539916 43529802 42729789
41979819
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 33218576 33448681 33798760 33758933 34089111 34139194
33939481 34139710 34159792 34549865 35139890 35599906
36029908 36319875 36449849 36439821 35969765 35429578
35709455 35989392 35979036 35688844 35618741 35948665
36808514 37698355 38718239 39378130 39718001 39697910
39337801 38867716 38127684 37067689 35937719 35197769
34687823 34307903 34038072 33798344 33218576
0.05 38700338 40720319 42250341 43350488 44520688 45200859
45660956 46131046 46761073 47521027 48040933 48480737
48400619 48130585 47040511 46420418 46500302 46420060
46929857 47529811 47909751 48089657 48159573 48269459
48379386 48399289 47779208 46909234 46119318 45279318
44479321 43799352 42769410 41909499 40509671 37570038
36530198 36570316 36810369 37480382 38700338
0.15 34788266 34228461 34088588 34428651 34948643 35468601
36098525 37028341 37568204 37638057 37237915 36647837
36427823 35917826 35587849 35297884 35137947 34978096
34788266
0.15 40659994 40750106 41910218 43480278 45010211 45540096
45279901 45429799 45599760 46129692 47099613 46909508
46299459 45489454 44719466 43729469 43029496 42049623
40959733 40749799 40659994
0.30 34998594 36668368 37118195 37128058 36637948 36267950
35888016 35878111 35478268 34348535 34578607 34998594
CIG1 41090130 42000215 43480238 45010146 45160027 45169991
44499857 44219806 43749723 42339594 41499621 41079678
40869875 41090130
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 34948643 35468601 36098525 37028341 37568204 37638057
37237915 36647837 36427823 35917826 35587849 35297884
35137947 34788266 34228461 34088588 34428651 34948643
SLGT 45150259 45420122 45540096 45279901 45429799 45599760
46089697 47099613 46919503 46239454 43729469 43029496
42049623 40959733 40749799 40659994 40750106 41060194
42150293 43840331 45150259
MRGL 36449849 36439821 35969765 35429578 35709455 35989392
35979036 35688844 35618741 35948665 37698355 38718239
39378130 39718001 39697910 39337801 38867716 38127684
37067689 35937719 35197769 34687823 34307903 34038072
33798344 33218576 33448681 33798760 33758933 34089111
34139194 33939481 34159792 34549865 35599906 36029908
36449849
MRGL 47521027 48040933 48480737 48400619 48130585 47040511
46420418 46500302 46420060 46929857 47529811 47909751
48089657 48379386 48399289 47779208 46909234 46119318
44479321 42769410 41909499 37570038 36530198 36570316
36810369 37480382 38700338 40720319 40940322 41580404
43060450 44520688 45200859 46131046 46761073 47521027
TSTM 48518789 48158797 47878772 47548693 46828546 46578522
46158504 45718517 45478563 44998752 44308898 42549163
40839387 39789517 38589620 37849628 37219549 36819417
36639192 36769041 36888937 37038867 37278809 37638759
38108705 39778603 40648483 41138371 41138157 41158024
41557911 43307609 44667386 45477239 45777219 99999999
26739985 27229937 27499895 27519829 27369803 26989774
26559751 26209742 25659761 99999999 28187978 27378043
27468132 27718223 27958285 28248345 99999999 45606681
44626908 43956998 43127105 42657154 42337157 42197136
42177032 42166944 99999999 31581312 33611254 34501212
35091135 35930950 36460820 37110711 37780633 38420580
39300538 40420499 41330516 41910579 42100730 41790993
41561134 40851280 40251347 39631370 38951382 38451431
38221520 38161566 38681650 39401707 40371710 41991678
43541656 43761657 44071695 44231729 44181793 44401854
45131854 45641795 46111664 46461530 46911482 47671457
48691472 49961526 99999999 29059273 30019301 30539296
31199282 31769226 32119156 32469121 32709124 32919141
32979227 32979424 32949600 33039719 33169784 33859955
34490085 34830158 35140302 35070406 34890444 34560469
34040487 33570472 32940424 31760340 30270275 28960248
&&
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30
NE HSV 55 WNW CHA 15 NW CSV 35 S JKL 50 WNW BLF 15 SW SSU 0 - LYH
20 W AVC 20 SSW AVC 20 WNW RWI 25 SE RDU 20 N FAY 10 SW SOP 20 N
AND 35 ESE RMG 15 ENE GAD 20 SE HSV 30 NE HSV
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60
SSW Y22 40 W MBG 25 W MBG 30 WSW ABR 20 E ABR 50 NNW ATY 60 S FAR
20 NNW DTL 40 S BJI 25 WSW BRD 15 WNW FRM 15 SE SPW 20 N TQE 35 S
OLU 25 SE GRI 45 NE MCK 35 SW LBF 40 NNW IML 10 NW AIA 20 SW RAP
60 SSW Y22
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE AVK 15 WNW END 30 SSE END 30 SW MKO 25 NNW FSM 15 E FYV 20
ENE JBR 25 ENE MKL 60 N MSL 15 S BNA 15 NW JKL 25 NNE HTS 0 - PKB
0 - MGW 45 SSE LBE 0 - MRB 0 - DCA 25 WSW NHK 40 SE RIC 40 E RWI
25 N OAJ 35 NNW ILM 45 N CRE 25 ENE CAE 15 SSW AHN 25 SSE ANB 10
SSW BHM 40 N TCL 45 SSE UOX 45 N GLH 0 - PBF 25 WSW DEQ 35 ENE
SPS 15 WSW FSI 20 NNE CSM 50 N CSM 25 SSE AVK
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 NW LWT 40 SSE HVR 40 WNW GGW 25 ENE GGW 15 W OLF 15 WSW GDV 0
- BHK 25 SSW DIK 25 SSE BIS 0 - JMS 50 NNE JMS 15 WSW GFK 20 W
TVF 25 WSW INL 25 ESE INL 15 SW ELO 10 WNW DLH 50 ESE BRD 30 S MSP
15 NNE FOD 20 ESE DNS 25 WSW DDC 35 S EHA 10 N CAO 40 NW CAO 30
ENE TAD 40 SSE LIC 30 SSW SNY 15 SW SNY 35 S TOR 50 ENE DGW 20 SSE
SHR 40 S BIL 30 N LVM 50 WNW 3HT 50 NW LWT
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNE CMX 70 NNE
CMX 60 NE CMX 75 NNE MQT 55 WNW ANJ 40 W ANJ 40 NNW PLN 20 WNW PLN
50 N TVC 45 NE GRB 30 NW OSH 45 N CID 15 NNE LWD 15 W STJ 15 N EMP
35 S EMP 30 S CNU 15 WSW UMN 10 SSW UNO 0 - POF 25 SSE CGI 0 -
PAH 40 ENE PAH 30 S EVV 25 NNE OWB 15 ENE IND 30 SE FWA 10 NNW FDY
15 NNW CAK 25 SW FKL 30 NNW DUJ 15 N SYR 25 NE SLK 40 N EFK 60 N
EFK ...CONT... 60 SSW LRD 25 SSE LRD 30 E LRD 20 SW ALI 25 S ALI
55 SSE ALI 45 N BRO 20 N BRO 20 SSW BRO ...CONT... 55 NE VRB 20 S
VRB 15 S AGR 30 NE SRQ 10 WNW PIE 50 WNW PIE ...CONT... 50 NNE EPM
15 SW BGR 25 SSW AUG 10 WNW PSM 30 NNE ORH 15 ENE ORH 20 SW BOS 35
N HYA 55 NE HYA ...CONT... 95 SSW GBN 30 WNW PHX 20 ESE PRC 20 E
FLG 50 NW GUP 20 S FMN 35 E DRO 35 NW ALS 70 N ALS 40 SW DEN 0 -
FCL 20 NW CYS 40 N LAR 20 NNW RWL 55 S BPI 25 NW EVW 45 N DPG 30 W
DPG 55 SW DPG 55 NW MLF 60 N P38 55 NW P38 70 WNW P38 55 NE TPH 10
SE U31 20 SW BAM 30 W OWY 15 W BOI 20 NW BOI 50 NW BOI 50 SSE BKE
45 S BKE 45 SW BKE 40 SSE PDT 35 SSE ALW 25 SE LWS 25 NNE P69 35 W
MSO 45 SSW GPI 35 NW GPI 120 NNW GPI ...CONT... 60 SW 7R4 15 ESE
LCH 30 NNE LCH 25 ENE POE 25 N ESF 35 NNW HEZ 50 E MLU 50 ENE MLU
45 SSW GLH 35 NNW MLU 35 SSW TXK 55 NW TYR 20 NE FTW 30 NNE MWL 60
SSW LTS 35 W CDS 30 SSE AMA 35 E TCC 25 WSW TCC 50 WSW TCC 65 ENE
4CR 45 E 4CR 20 NNW ROW 30 SE ROW 10 W INK 35 WNW 6R6 75 SSW 6R6
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 17, 20:03z for portions of LMK---------------
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