Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1978 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch prob: 5%] [Most Prob: Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: UP TO 60 MPH]543
ACUS11 KWNS 141936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141935
RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-142130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern/eastern New York into southern
New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141935Z - 142130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Lop-topped thunderstorms may bring an isolated risk for
damaging wind gusts (and perhaps an instance of marginally severe
hail) to portions of New York and southern New England this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a cluster of ongoing
thunderstorms that have recently progressed from southern Ontario
into Upstate New York immediately ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough evident in visible satellite imagery. Cold mid-level
temperatures associated with this shortwave and steep low-level
lapse rates have allowed for the development of weak buoyancy (on
the order of a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE), which is sufficient for a
few relatively low-topped thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly,
mid-to-upper level flow (sampled by the TYX VWP) is supporting
modest effective shear (25-35+ kts) and some updraft organization.
While it remains unclear how long ongoing convection will be
maintained owing to limited available buoyancy, forcing associated
with the mid-level shortwave may allow for the persistence of
ongoing convection southeastward toward southern New England and/or
additional downstream development through the afternoon. Should this
occur, isolated damaging wind gusts (and perhaps an instance of
marginally severe hail in the near-term) are possible. Watch
issuance is not anticipated as the limited thermodynamic environment
is expected to largely temper convective intensity.
..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43057577 43467624 44067628 44467592 44637542 44627490
44207409 43067253 42737209 42367162 42047161 41727173
41437216 41267276 41477382 42027461 43057577
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1978 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch prob: 5%] [Most Prob: Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: UP TO 60 MPH]----------------
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