MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 11:51 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...621
FXUS64 KMOB 070451
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1151 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon through early next week.
- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into
early next week.
- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches
on Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Starting off tonight rather quiet across the area looking at
GOES-16 Night Microphysics along with KMOB trends. Seeing a few
isolated showers across the warm Gulf waters fueled by copious
amounts of marine instability. Coverage will steadily increase
overnight, supported by a subtle/weak inverted trough axis
approaching from the western Gulf to provide some dynamic
assistance which will continue into the early/mid-morning hours. 0-1km
bulk shear on the order of 1-3kts, the potential for landbreeze
localized sfc/low-level vorticity, ample PBL moisture all supports
the potential for a few fair-weather waterspouts, something to
monitor. Some of this activity will pour inland across coastal
areas mid-morning, becoming more noticably inland during the
afternoon/evening hours fueled by ample daytime sfc heating, with
greatest/strongest convection focused from localized lift caused
by sea/baybreeze interactions. For that reason, can't fully rule
out a few rogue stronger storms that could contain downburst
potential given noticably drying in the low/mid-level troposphere
amplified by downward flux momentum transport in a well-mixed,
deep PBL. No adjustments needed to proposed NBM PoPs as
timing/coverage appears in line with meteorological reasoning and
supported by recent REFS/HRRR trends.
Additionally, did take a minor adjustment with afternoon dewpoints
to allow for a more realistic afternoon mixing regime, this mostly
was emphasized as prescribed burns continue across interior
southern Mississippi.
Rolling right along into the weekend, same deal each day with hot
afternoon temperatures. Honestly hard to find many differences
between each day as the aforementioned subtle impulse drifts west
of the area, and daily mainly mid/late AM to PM pop-up
showers/storms, starting near the water, then more inland
throughout each day. No oppressive or excessive heat concerns
with highs generally in the low 90's and dewpoints in the low/mid
70's providing max heat indices in the 101-107 range.
Going into next week, the weak, slow-moving disturbance drifts
inland across SE LA placing our general area in rather progressive
southerly flow regime. Still seeing long-range higher-than-normal
confidence in a building ridge pattern expanding/retrograding
west across the northern Gulf coast states, aiding in increasing
heat and lowering PoPs some. Not reflecting much of this within
the forecast yet other than some mid to becoming upper 90's
possible in SW MS counties, but could start to get closer to Heat
Advisory criteria at some point mid/late week. Just depends on if
we mix out a bit more which is a common theme as we warm up to
temperatures that warm. KLG
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period. Current winds will begin
to wane as we approach sunset. Winds will increase to 5-10 knots
tomorrow morning and prevail generally southerly to southeasterly
with periodic gusts up to 15 knots. There is a chance for showers
and thunderstorms tomorrow morning near the coast and again for
the afternoon into the evening. These are accompanied by stronger
wind gusts and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR
within the strongest storms. SS/97
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
A weakly organized surface ridge over/near the northern Gulf
coast will create a light to at times moderate mostly onshore flow
through the forecast. Near coastal areas will see a switch to
offshore flow overnight into the morning hours at times as a land
breeze sets up with the night cooling.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 91 72 93 / 0 20 0 20
Pensacola 76 90 75 92 / 10 30 0 20
Destin 77 89 77 91 / 20 20 10 20
Evergreen 71 92 72 93 / 10 10 10 20
Waynesboro 72 94 72 95 / 40 10 20 30
Camden 73 91 73 91 / 10 10 10 20
Crestview 72 93 72 93 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 11:51 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...---------------
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