LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 3:08 AM EDT916
FXUS63 KLMK 060708
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms (20-40% coverage)
are possible this afternoon in areas along and east of I-65.
* Unsettled weather expected to continue Friday and into Saturday
with rain chances peaking in the 50-60% range.
* A slight reprieve in the weather is expected for the late weekend
and into early next week. However, the latest data show the
pattern becoming more active for mid-late week with additional
rounds of convection and potentially excessive rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much
of central and eastern Kentucky. A few high clouds were noted over
portions of southern Indiana and western Kentucky. Temperatures
across the region were in the upper 60s to around 70. Combination
of light winds, and recent rainfall may lead to some patchy fog
production later this morning. Otherwise, no significant weather is
expected through sunrise.
For today, mid-level trough axis over Missouri will head eastward
with a convective cluster rolling into eastern MO/southern IL/W KY
later this morning. This cluster of storms is expected to diminish
before making it to the LMK CWA. This afternoon, aforementioned
shortwave trough will push just north of the region. A southwest
flow will continue to funnel moisture into the region from the Gulf.
Afternoon MLCAPE will likely increase into the 1000-1500 J/kg range
though model soundings show very weak shear across the region. Most
CAMs show garden variety convection this afternoon once we hit
convective temperatures (86-88 degrees). Overall coverage from the
multi-model consensus would suggest 20-40% coverage, favoring areas
mainly east of the I-65 corridor.
Severe weather threat looks to remain isolated across the region
today. The high PWAT air will likely lead to precipitation loading
and torrential downpours with any storm that develops. While wind
gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected, small instances of 40-50 mph
wind gusts can't be ruled out. Frequent lightning can be expected
with these storms. The weak wind shear will also lead to a rather
weak steering flow for storms across the region. Residence time in
any one location could be high and lead to excessive rainfall and
localized flooding. Highs this afternoon will be in the 85-90 degree
range. Slightly cooler temps will be noted just to our west as
widespread convective cloud debris will limit heating this afternoon.
For tonight, upper trough axis will remain just north of the region
and we'll be on the southern periphery of it. The latest data
continues to show another perturbation aloft moving in late tonight
which may contain enough lift to produce some additional convection
overnight. Highest chances of rain would be limited to our northern
areas, mainly north of the river in southern Indiana. Ensemble
guidance suggests 20-40% probs here. Ample cloud cover will likely
be in place overnight which will keep overnight minimums in the
lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Friday through Saturday Night...
As we head into the weekend, the latest suite of model data shows
broad upper level troughing remaining in place across the Midwest
and into the Great Lakes. Corresponding ridging will be seen across
the western CONUS and into the western Rockies. A diffuse surface
frontal boundary is expected to stall out north of the region on
Friday and into Saturday. The LMK CWA will remain on the south side
of this boundary with PWATs remaining in the 1.7-1.9 inch range.
Aloft, multiple perturbations are expected to move through the region
and will bring episodic bouts of convection. Model soundings show
enough instability to support somewhat organized convection.
However, shear values will remain quite weak with speeds of less
than 20kts. The risk for severe weather during this period
continues to be on the low side. However, that high PWAT air will
likely lead to precipitation loading in storms with torrential
rainfall and localized gusty winds with any stronger storm. Slow
environmental flow could result in excessive rainfall, especially in
areas that see repeated convection. Highs Friday and Saturday will
be in the 85-90 degree range with overnight lows in the upper
60s/lower 70s.
Sunday through Wednesday...
Moving into the later part of the weekend, the upper level pattern
looks to deamplify slightly as the upper trough axis over the Great
Lakes moves easts and the flow aloft becomes a bit more zonal.
Stronger westerly flow aloft will be confined to the northern tier
of the US which should result in a storm track further to our north
with lesser rain chances across the Ohio Valley for Monday and
Tuesday. Highs Sunday will warm again into the 85-90 degree range.
For Monday and Tuesday, we'll a slight increase in 1000-500 hPa
thickness which should support afternoon temps in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s. Temps could be slightly cooler here as a number of
convective systems will likely move across the northern Midwest and
Great Lakes through the period and could produce some high clouds
across the region limiting heating.
By mid-week, the upper level ridge across the western CONUS is
expected amplify with downstream troughing redeveloping across the
east. The flow pattern across the Ohio Valley will develop into a
notorious northwest flow pattern. Several perturbations are likely
to drop southeast into the region resulting in episodic bouts of
convection and possible MCS activity with excessive rainfall
becoming a problem by late week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Still seeing some scattered high cloud cover across the region.
However, this cloud cover is diminishing with time and may become
thin enough to produce some light fog again this morning at BWG/LEX.
Look for fog to mix out in the morning with winds picking back up
out of the west at 5-8 knots through the afternoon. Some scattered
showers/storms will be possible in the afternoon. Will attempt to
nail down coverage in the 06/12Z issuance.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 3:08 AM EDT---------------
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