MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 2:02 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...558
FXUS64 KMOB 021902
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
202 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026
- A High Risk of rip currents will continue through tonight for
all area beaches.
- A few strong storms, capable of producing gusty winds and heavy
rainfall, remains possible this afternoon and into the evening
hours for areas east of I-65.
- Drier air filters in tonight, lowering rain chances through
midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026
A positively-tilted upper-level trough currently stretches from
the Great Lakes region down towards the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. This trough will continue to slowly push eastwards; it's
axis passing overhead tonight and likely reaching the Appalachians
by tomorrow afternoon. At the surface, a cold front currently
bisects the local area, stretching from central Mobile county up
to the northeast along the I-65 corridor. Although not bringing
much in the way of cooler temperatures to the area, this front is
helping to create a very tight moisture gradient across the area.
PWATs over our area range from 1.3-1.5 inches over our
northwestern counties to as high as 2.1-2.4 inches over our
southeastern counties. Current radar shows scattered to numerous
showers and storms over our northwestern Florida counties, up into
Escambia and Covington Counties in Alabama. These storms have
gradually been pushing towards the east this afternoon as forcing
from an embedded shortwave aloft rounds the base of the trough and
passes overhead. Although the strongest storms/heaviest rainfall
are starting to exit our CWA to the east, cannot rule out the
development of a few more storms which are capable of producing
gusty winds and very heavy rainfall over the next few hours.
By tonight and into Monday, as the upper trough passes to our east,
the drier airmass will filter into the rest of the area. The trough
is expected to cutoff from the jet stream by Monday night and linger
over the Appalachians through Wednesday night before becoming
absorbed by another trough. This will help to maintain a dry
northerly to northwesterly flow pattern aloft, helping to keep rain
chances low through at least midweek. Little to no rain is expected
on Monday, with only a few spotty showers and storms possible
Tuesday and Wednesday. If storms do manage to form during this
period, they will likely remain confined to the sea breeze boundary
generally along and east of the I-65 corridor. Moisture slowly
starts to advect back into the area by the latter part of the week
and into next weekend, allowing for our typical summertime pattern
of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms to return.
Highs throughout the period will remain in the low to mid 90s,
however, with the drier air filtering in, heat indices should remain
below Heat Advisory criteria through midweek. Heat indices may rise
to around 100-105 degrees by late week as moisture returns. Lows
tonight and Monday night will actually be a touch cooler thanks to
the drier airmass. Lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the
mid 70s along the coast. Lows increase back to the low 70s inland to
upper 70s along the coast by midweek. A High Risk of Rip Currents
remains in place through tonight, lowering to a Moderate Risk for
Monday. The rip current risk drops to a Low Risk for Tuesday and
into midweek. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026
General MVFR to VFR conditions with a shower or thunderstorm or two
with a wind shift tonight as a front passes are expected over non-
coastal counties. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
over our coastal counties, with local drops to low end MVFR from
upper end MVFR/VFR conditions are expected. Locally variable winds
are expected with the stronger thunderstorms.
As mentioned above, a weak front will move south across the area
this afternoon into tonight, eventually stalling south of the
coast tonight. Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots (10-15 knots along the
coast) will shift to northwest to northerly tonight behind the
front. /16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026
Moderate westerly to southwesterly winds gradually weaken tonight,
briefly becoming northwesterly to westerly. Small Craft should
exercise caution over the Gulf waters this afternoon and into the
evening hours. A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow
develops on Monday, becoming more southerly by Wednesday. Light
to moderate southeasterly to easterly flow develops for the latter
part of the week. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 91 70 91 72 / 30 10 10 10
Pensacola 89 75 90 76 / 80 30 10 10
Destin 87 76 89 77 / 90 30 10 0
Evergreen 90 69 90 69 / 30 10 10 0
Waynesboro 90 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 88 69 89 70 / 0 0 10 10
Crestview 89 70 91 70 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 2:02 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
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