CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 2:34 AM EDT063
FXUS61 KCLE 030634
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
234 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few isolated light showers may continue over far NE OH and NW PA
tonight, but the heavy rain and severe potential has ended.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday before the
chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday afternoon
through Friday. Near normal temperatures expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As a low pressure system continues to drift toward the Northeast US
today, high pressure is expected to build southeast across the area
and allow for dry and pleasant conditions today and tomorrow with
highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s and sunny skies. This
high pressure will drift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Wednesday as
a weak low pressure and mid-level shortwave push northeast along the
Appalachian Mountains. This disturbance will allow for the return of
showers and possible thunderstorms along and east of I-71. Given the
positioning of the low, much of the area may remain dry until a
broad upper level trough begins to impact the region on Thursday.
On Thursday, the aforementioned trough will begin to advect mid-
level energy into the region as it moves a surface cold front east.
Models suggest this cold front stalling somewhere near the central
Great Lakes region and acting as a path for an additional surface
low to move from the Plains into the region. Additionally, increase
moisture and WAA should assist with destabilization across the area
on Thursday presenting the potential for thunderstorms during the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Another round of convection
is possible again on Friday as the aforementioned boundary slowly
meanders east. Will have to keep an eye on this boundary as current
models suggest that the positioning of the mean flow could result in
the training of some storms. In addition, given the spread amongst
models, there is low confidence in the severe potential, but will
need to keep an eye on it given the favorable synoptic setup.
Temperatures throughout the week are expected to remain near normal
with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Rain activity has pushed east of the area early this morning,
but ceilings remain a mixed bag with VFR and clearing in NW OH
and a variety of MVFR and IFR ceilings further east. Clouds
should remain across the bulk of the airspace with cooler
northerly flow over Lake Erie continuing to support clouds
overnight. With time overnight, the IFR should erode and by done
around daybreak. High pressure will continue to build into the
region on Monday and skies will clear and all terminals will pop
up to VFR. Winds will remain northerly through the period,
decreasing as the day progresses.
Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
potential for non-VFR are possible on Wednesday through Friday,
primarily during the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Elevated northerly flow continues for the central basin of Lake
Erie. Waves of 2 to 5 ft will continue through the late morning
hours with this flow and the Small Craft Advisories and Beach
Hazards Statements will remain until 11 AM. High pressure
building into the region will allow for winds on the lake to
diminish through the day. Winds will become light and variable
tonight into Tuesday with the high over the region. High
pressure will shift east for Tuesday night into Wednesday and
some southerly winds will return to the lake before a lake
breeze kicks in on Wednesday afternoon. Several weak systems
passing to the northwest will allow for southwest flow to be
favored over the lake on Thursday and continuing through the end
of the week. Once marine headlines end later today, there are
not future marine headlines anticipated at this time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for
OHZ009>012-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
LEZ144>148.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 2:34 AM EDT---------------
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