JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 2:20 AM EDT211
FXUS63 KJKL 020620 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
220 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slow-moving system keeps daily shower and storm chances, along
with some heavy rain potential, in the forecast from Sunday
through Tuesday.
- Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as well as tweaking of the PoPs per the current mosaic radar and
near term CAMs. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFS, and
zones.
UPDATE Issued at 757 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
Isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunders are noted over
the JKL CWA at update issuance. Looking upstream, a line of
showers and thunderstorms is situated along an approaching
occluded front extending from Cincinnati to Tompkinsville.
Additional convection, some of it supercellular, is also lifting
northeast across Tennessee's Cumberland Plateau. The parameter
space from the SPC Mesoanalysis shows generally 1,000 to 2,000
J/kg of MLCAPE near and west of the I-75 corridor, with weaker
instability further east. Effective shear remains marginal at 25
to 30 knots. This combination of ingredients should be supportive
of organized linear convection but could also sustain a few weak
supercells as well. In spite of the relatively modest deep layer
shear, southerly 850 hPA flow at 25 to 30 knots is supporting 100
to 200 m2/s2 of ESRH, leading to enlarged low-level hodographs in
a low LCL environment. Thus there is some concern that should a
supercell become better organized for a brief time, it could
produce a weak tornado. Additionally, the 0-3km shear vectors are
at about 30 knots from the southwest; therefore any linear
segment that becomes more perpendicular (oriented more northwest-
southeast) to that shear vector could generate a brief spin-up
tornado. The greater chance for this QLCS-type tornado would be
over the Bluegrass, given overall occluded front orientation.
Aside from the severe weather potential, PWATs nearing 2.0 inches
along with skinny CAPE profiles and a deep saturated warm layer
will support high rainfall rates. While overall cell motions are
progressive, those locations which experience multiple torrential
downpours could eventually have isolated flash flooding concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
At 18Z an abnormally deep low was located across southeast IL and SW
IN. The systems warm front located SW of the area, will move NNE
this afternoon through Eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile the cold front
will move from west to east through Sunday.
Infrared satellite shows the remnants of leftover morning showers
across the eastern two thirds of the CWA. To the west, in an area
of some clearing as seen on visible satellite, storms have
initiated. These cloud tops are beginning to cool with their
development. SPC mesoanalysis page shows good moisture transport
from SSW to NNE into the Cumberland plateau area. the 12Z sounding
from Nashville shows the surrounding atmosphere with PWAT of 2.36
inches. With an environment like this, any storms that develop
and train over the same areas could be susceptible to isolated
instances of flash flooding. Not much MLCAPE is currently overhead
(about 500 J/kg), however later this afternoon an axis of
500-1500 J/kg is expected to work into western portions of the
forecast area. Latest model trends have been trending lower in
regard to wind shear, with only 20-25 kts forecasted. Better shear
(30-35 kts), looks to stay further west. So over the next several
hours, strong to severe storms could develop and persist into the
evening. Locations west of a line from Morehead to Campton, to
Barbourville are under a Slight Risk for severe weather from the
SPC with damaging winds and torrential rainfall being the primary
threat. Although a brief tornado can't be ruled out, the storm
would likely have to be traveling due north to have a chance
(being perpendicular to the shear vector). Greatest severe weather
threat looks to be between 5 PM and 11 PM.
A lull in shower and storm activity will occur overnight with
isolated chances mainly in the Big Sandy area. With clouded skies,
temperatures may only cool into the upper 60s to near 70 in places.
Sunday, the cutoff low is expected to be centered over southern IN.
The systems cold front will slowly work through the area tomorrow,
producing another round of shower and storms. These storms aren't
expected to bring much in the way of severe weather. Highs will
generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s during the day, with lows in
the upper 60s. As the low begins to pull northwest into the Northeast,
shower will diminish Sunday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 557 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
The long wave pattern will remain stagnant and amplified over the
CONUS next week. Two strong upper level high pressure systems will
be centering over Bermuda and the Four Corners region with time.
Meanwhile, a slow-moving trough will initially be laid out near or
just west of the Appalachians, keeping unsettled weather in place
across the region early next week. The trough will dampen by mid-
week, as higher geopotential heights spread west towards the
Eastern Seaboard from the Bermuda high center. In tandem, higher
geopotential heights will work east of the Mississippi River from
the Four Corners high center. Additionally, cyclonic flow will
overspread the north central CONUS from a deeper upper level low
that will be gyring over Hudson Bay. This will likely result in
any frontal systems remaining generally north of the Ohio Valley
into next weekend, and while diurnally-influenced PoPs will
remain in the forecast, coverage will likely be more scattered in
nature for the latter half of next week.
Eastern Kentucky will start out under the influence of an upper
level trough, keeping higher rain chances in place through at
least Tuesday. PWATs will not be excessively high (LREF mean
values of 50-75th percentile of climatology); however, high
freezing levels and slower storm motions of 10 to 15 kts will keep
at least a marginal heavy rainfall threat in place at times.
Temperatures will average near seasonal normals for early August,
with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the mid 60s, with
elevated humidity levels. As we come more under the influence of
the ridging aloft, rain chances will generally decrease, with
convection becoming more scattered in nature each day, especially
from Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will creep up a bit
through next weekend, peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will
also moderate through the upper 60s to near 70, with higher
humidity levels continuing across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A slow-moving occluded front is working deeper into the JKL CWA.
This will push a broken band of showers and thunderstorms through
eastern parts of the area early this morning. Towards dawn, low
stratus or fog may impact a few of the TAF terminals. Additional
showers and storms are expected to redevelop for most TAF sites
by midday. Away from any storms, winds will generally be light
and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 2:20 AM EDT---------------
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