Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #873 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE557
AWUS01 KWNH 280959
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281410-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0873
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Areas affected...upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 280956Z - 281410Z
SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from the
upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians through 14Z (10 AM).
Training of heavy rain will allow for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches (locally higher) with storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0935Z showed a region of
thunderstorms advancing southeastward from eastern and southern OH
with an embedded axis of training which passed through Columbus
around 08Z containing hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches. 0935Z
imagery showed an apparent MCV about 45 miles SSE of Columbus,
tracking nearly parallel to a warm front which was analyzed from
west-central OH into far southwestern WV at 09Z. A second
MCV-feature was observed over eastern OH, tracking toward western
PA. Instability has continued to increase across southern OH with
a 500 to 1000 J/kg increase in MLCAPE since 06Z per SPC
mesoanalysis data, owing to low level moisture advection from the
west. 09Z estimated MLCAPE was 250-750 J/kg with the ongoing
convective cluster in southern OH, while less than 250 J/kg was in
place farther north along the OH/PA border.
Low level westerly winds (40-50 kt at 850 mb) are likely to weaken
a bit over the next few hours but continue the advection of
moisture and instability toward the east over the next 3-5 hours.
Expectations are for convection to maintain along the leading edge
of the advancing instability gradient, which should move into
eastern KY, much of WV and portions of western VA and northeastern
TN through 14Z. The MCV over south-central OH is forecast to track
southeastward in the near term, carrying the greatest short term
potential for training heavy rain of 1 to 2+ inches per hour into
WV. Additional convection may develop elsewhere across eastern KY
into the central Appalachians within the warm advection regime,
with isolated flash flood potential. Through 14Z. Storm total
rainfall of 2-4 inches will be possible, though these higher end
amounts should remain fairly isolated.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40028123 39888034 39537996 39047978 38167988
36808100 35988233 35928355 36358420 37168426
38258373 39228310 39618254 39888202
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #873 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
