CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 9:13 PM EDT060
FXUS61 KCLE 080113
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
913 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across the region through Monday,
followed by a weak cold front on Tuesday. The remnants of Beryl
will approach the area by Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
9:15 PM Update...
No changes were made with this forecast update.
Previous Discussion...
A quiet and seasonable near term period is in store across the
region as high pressure persists.
For the rest of today, a lake breeze that developed earlier this
afternoon continues to progress further inland as a weak MSLP
gradient remains in place. For tonight, diurnal cloud cover is
expected to diminish as temperatures fall into the 60s under
mostly clear skies.
Slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 are
expected for Monday as the high slowly drifts eastward. A lake
breeze will develop once again by late morning and early
afternoon, though is not anticipated to progress as far inland
as the one today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cyclonic SW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
affect our region through this period as a positively-tilted
longwave trough lingers over/near the western Great Lakes and
central Great Plains, and the core of a longwave ridge persists over
Atlantic waters offshore the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic portions
of the U.S. At the surface, our CWA is expected to reside along the
western flank of the Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge on Tuesday. A
weak synoptic MSLP gradient accompanying the ridge and sufficient
daytime heating of land surrounding ~73F Lake Erie are expected to
permit lake breeze development over and within several miles of the
lake during the late morning through early evening. Late afternoon
highs are forecast to reach the 80F to 85F range over/within several
miles of Lake Erie and the 85F to 90F range elsewhere. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms with periods of heavy rainfall are possible on
Tuesday as the warm conveyor belt of Beryl's remnant low undergoes
isentropic ascent over our area, taps into abundant moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico, and releases weak to moderate elevated CAPE. In
addition, the Lake Erie lake breeze front should contribute to
isolated shower/thunderstorm development during the afternoon
through early evening as the mesoscale front encounters a warm/moist
sector boundary layer that is forecast to undergo weak to moderate
destabilization via daytime heating as deep layer bulk shear remains
moderate to strong. As a result, a few severe thunderstorms with
damaging convective gusts amidst steep low-level lapse rates and
sizable DCAPE are possible in the afternoon through early evening.
A weak cold front is still expected to sweep SE'ward through our
region Tuesday night as a prominent shortwave trough advances from
near the Ozarks toward the southwestern Great Lakes and the
attendant remnant surface low of Beryl moves generally NE'ward from
near the Mid MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley, along the front.
The aforementioned warm conveyor belt is expected to begin to
bifurcate and promote frontogenetical convergence aloft, over/near
our CWA, while continuing to undergo low-level isentropic ascent
aloft while tapping into greater moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Accordingly, PWAT values are forecast to surge to near 2.0" (i.e.
record-high values). The aforementioned forcing for ascent is
expected to release weak to moderate and primarily elevated CAPE and
trigger scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms with periods
of torrential rainfall. Localized flash flooding is possible.
Despite continued moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear, severe
thunderstorm potential is expected to end by midnight as the
boundary layer stabilizes slightly via nocturnal cooling, which will
likely cause showers/storms to become elevated. Plus severe hail
will continue to not be a concern due, in part to weak mid-level
lapse rates. Overnight lows should reach the mid 60's to lower 70's
around daybreak Wednesday.
The prominent shortwave trough mentioned in the paragraph above is
expected to shift NE'ward toward Lake Huron on Wednesday through
Wednesday night as the attendant remnant low of Beryl moves NE'ward
from the Lower OH Valley toward Lake Erie. This should allow the
surface front to shift back N'ward as a warm front in our CWA and
near Lake Erie on Wednesday. During Wednesday night, the trailing
cold front should begin to sweep E'ward into our CWA and near the I-
71 corridor by daybreak. Peeks of sunshine/intervals of daytime
heating and net low-level WAA should allow highs to reach mainly the
upper 70's to mid 80's Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows should
reach mainly the mid 60's to near 70F around daybreak Thursday.
Scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms with periods of
torrential rainfall are expected due to very moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front and low-level
convergence/attendant ascent along the warm front, surface trough
axes in the warm/moist sector, and the cold front interacting with
weak to moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE. Flash flooding
remains possible. Severe thunderstorms, including supercells, with
scattered damaging convective wind gusts and several tornadoes are
possible, especially Wednesday afternoon through early evening,
amidst low-level winds veering/strengthening significantly with
height and mixed layer LCL's easily below 1.5k meters AGL. However,
the severe thunderstorm potential is highly contingent on the degree
of daytime heating/resulting destabilization of the warm/moist
sector boundary layer, the development of steep low-level lapse
rates/sizable DCAPE, the development of a surface-based effective
inflow layer with large SRH, and the ultimate track of Beryl's
remnant low. Changes to the forecast are likely with future
updates.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Beryl's remnant and nearly vertically-stacked low should track
NE'ward from Lake Erie to southern QC and then the Canadian
Maritimes on Thursday through Friday night as cyclonic SW'erly
flow aloft veers to W'erly over our region. The cold front
trailing the remnant low should sweep E'ward across the rest of
our CWA on Thursday and be followed by weak ridging building
from the west through Friday night. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
should occur along the cold front as it encounters sufficient
instability in the warm/moist sector. Odds favor fair weather
Thursday night through Friday night as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the ridge. Plus, a stabilizing Lake Erie lake
breeze is expected to develop over and within several miles of
the lake late Friday morning through early evening. Daytime
highs should reach the mid 70's to lower 80's on Thursday and
mainly the lower to mid 80's on Friday. Overnight lows should
reach mainly the 60's around daybreak Friday and Saturday,
respectively.
The aforementioned surface ridge should exit slowly E'ward this
weekend as cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances continue to impact our area. A daily lake
breeze is expected to develop on Saturday and Sunday, although
Sunday's lake breeze may be confined to Lake Erie and locations
within several miles of the shore from northeastern Cuyahoga
County through Erie County, PA since the synoptic MSLP gradient
is progged to be SE'erly to S'erly that day. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms may develop along the lake breeze front
and surface trough axes attendant to the shortwave troughs as
the lifting mechanisms interact with sufficient moisture and
instability. Afternoon highs should reach the 80's to lower
90's this Saturday and Sunday as daytime heating is complemented
by WAA along the western flank of the low-level ridge.
Overnight lows should reach the 60's to lower 70's around
daybreak Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. Patchy fog possible for
inland Northwest Pennsylvania but unlikely elsewhere. Afternoon
cumulus clouds possible once again on Monday, though perhaps
slightly less coverage than earlier this afternoon.
Light and variable winds are expected overnight, becoming
southwest late Monday morning/early afternoon. A lake breeze is
expected to develop at CLE/ERI again on Monday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday. Non-VFR becoming more likely in
widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with the
remnants of Beryl on Wednesday. Lingering non-VFR is possible
on Thursday with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain around 5 to 15 knots and permit waves
to remain 3 feet or less through this Friday. Variable winds are
expected through Monday as a ridge persists over/near the eastern
Great Lakes. These variable winds will trend onshore during the late
morning through early evening hours of Monday, when lake breeze
development is expected. E'erly to SE'erly winds develop Monday
evening and then veer to S'erly to SW'erly overnight due to the
NE'ward passage of a warm front. Winds are expected to become
variable again on Tuesday as ridge noses from the southeast, behind
the warm front, and another lake breeze develops during the late
morning through early evening. A weak cold front is still expected
to sweep SE'ward over Lake Erie Tuesday night. The cold front
passage should cause winds to become NW'erly and then veer quickly
to NE'erly as a ridge attempts to build from northern ON while
Beryl's remnant low moves NE'ward along the aforementioned front,
from the Mid MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley.
Variable winds are expected on Lake Erie on Wednesday through
Wednesday night as the aforementioned front wavers in vicinity of
Lake Erie and Beryl's remnant low moves from the Lower OH Valley to
Lake Erie along the front, and the trailing front begins to sweep
E'ward across western portions of Lake Erie by Wednesday night.
Winds should remain variable on the lake during Thursday through
Friday as Beryl's remnant low moves farther NE'ward toward southern
QC and is followed by a ridge building from the west. Please see our
other marine forecast products for details regarding forecast wind
directions. Note: Another lake breeze is expected to develop late
Friday morning through early evening.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 9:13 PM EDT---------------
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