LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 9:27 PM EDT947
FXUS63 KLMK 080127
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
927 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Hot temperatures return Monday, with slowly increasing humidity.
* Moisture associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Beryl
will move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday.
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon into the overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and
isolated instances of damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes
possible in the strongest storms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Warmer night compared to last night, with temperatures still in the
upper 70s/low 80s this hour. Dewpoints have steadily been creeping
up. This change will help to slow down the drop in temps the rest of
the night. Urban areas may only drop to around 70 with more rural
locations in the mid to upper 60s. Made minor tweaks to the
forecast to warm it a degree or two. Still looking like warm day
tomorrow before storm chances move in for Tue/Wed...ahead of TC
Beryl's remnants.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Sfc high pressure near Toledo will continue to modify tonight and
Monday as it starts to retreat to the NE. Pressure pattern behind
the departing high is too weak for a Gulf moisture tap, but we will
see temps and dewpoints trend a few degrees higher compared to
today. Look for temps 3-4 degrees warmer, and dewpoints increasing
to the mid or upper 60s on Monday. The slightly warmer overnight
temps will keep fog formation at bay tonight. Heat index values
Monday will be in the mid/upper 90s.
Even with the increase in low-level moisture, deep moisture remains
lacking so no mention of precip planned. Can't rule out a diurnal
pop-up close to the KY/TN border, but that's less than a mention-
worthy chance.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
Monday Night Through Wednesday Night...
A moisture plume ahead of Tropical Cyclone Beryl will begin
advancing toward the region Monday night into Tuesday. The center of
Beryl's circulation by dawn Tuesday morning will likely be near the
ArkLaTex region, but will steadily advance northeastward through the
day and likely pass just north of the CWA on Wednesday.
Rainfall in our region could begin as early as Monday night, but
will likely hold off until Tuesday. While there are some slight
variations, most model/ensemble consensus peg the heaviest rainfall
to be along an axis stretching from northern Arkansas into
central/northern Indiana. As such, the threat for flooding rains
appears to be low within our CWA, though any heavier shower or storm
that develops in this environment would be capable of torrential
downpours.
Of more concern is the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts
and brief tornadoes within the outer bands of Tropical Cyclone
Beryl. Our region will be within the right-front quadrant of this
tropical system Tuesday, which is the most favorable area for
tornadic showers/storms. Model soundings ahead of the outer bands
that form Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours show elongated
hodographs with plentiful shear/helicity in the low levels.
Instability will also be present as we heat up and steepen low level
lapse rates ahead of the arrival of the tropical system. Will need
to keep an eye on this setup, as changes in the overall track of
Beryl and/or its speed will play a role in how favorable our
environment will be for tornadic potential.
Depending on Beryl's track, we could see some gusty gradient winds
Wednesday afternoon, particularly if we get any clearing. EPS
probabilities of +30mph wind gusts are near 70% for most of the
region.
Thursday into the weekend...
Mostly dry and hot weather is expected to return in the wake of
Beryl. Can't rule out isolated showers/storms at times during this
period, but we'll lack any sort of defined lifting mechanism to get
convection going, and warmer air aloft associated with upper level
ridging nudging in from the south and west will make it hard to get
any storms going.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024
VFR conditions to continue through this period. Very little pressure
change across the region will mean continued light and variable
winds for most of the period, though by Monday afternoon we could
see a subtle south to southwest wind develop.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...RJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 9:27 PM EDT---------------
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