MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 15, 6:13 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...664
FXUS64 KMOB 151113
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
613 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
- Hotter temperatures return Thursday into the weekend, with
afternoon heat indices climbing back into the triple digits.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Forecast remains on track. MM/25
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Through Friday...an upper level low over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley moves west to over the Southern Plains, with an upper level
ridge over the northeastern Conus shifting south to over the
Southeast, as a ridge builds north over the Rockies. Shortwave
energy moves over the Southeast, providing the beginnings of a mean
upper trough over the Southeast in the extended. A surface low
centered over the Mississippi Delta shifts west with the upper low,
with surface high pressure building over the Gulf. A drier airmass
develops over the Gulf, then shifts north over western/central
portions of the Southeast. Rain chances drop off with the increase
in upper subsidence over the forecast area and drop in moisture
levels. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible north of
Highway 84 Wednesday, with a dry forecast for the rest of the week.
Looking at temperatures, near seasonal high temperatures Wednesday (
around 90 to low 90s) rise into the low to mid 90s by Friday with
the increasing upper subsidence and decreasing deep layer moisture.
Enough moisture remains in the boundary layer for Heat Indices to
rise into the 99 to 106 degree range by Friday. Low temperatures
rise from the low 70s Wednesday night over most of the forecast area
to the mid 70s Friday night. Low temperatures along the coast remain
in the upper 70s though the near term.
Saturday through the weekend...guidance continues to advertise
shortwave energy organizing into an mean upper level shortwave
trough over the Southeast this weekend. Increasing moisture moves
back from the east with the developing upper trough. With varying
placement of the upper trough, where over the precipitation returns
to the region varies. The best compromise is showers and
thunderstorms returning to mainly the eastern half of the forecast
area. Temperatures rise more, to the mid/upper 90s by Tuesday. Heat
indices also rise as moisture levels rise over the forecast area,
rising to Heat Advisory levels over most of the area Monday.
Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a light to at
times moderate southwest to westerly flow eases, when combined with
a decreasing tidal cycle, to drop the Rip Risk to a Low by the end of
the week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
A couple patches of fog over the interior this morning is locally
reducing flight category to MVFR/IFR, with most other locations at
VFR flight category. VFR flight category will prevail for most
locations throughout today into tonight. A couple showers or
storms over the interior this afternoon may temporarily reduce
flight category. Winds remain out of the west at 5 to 10 knots
today. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow will continue through
through the end of the week. A west to northwest flow will develop
over the weekend as high pressure shifts west of the area. Seas
generally 2 feet or less for the remainder of the week.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 92 73 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Pensacola 91 77 94 79 / 10 10 10 0
Destin 89 79 91 80 / 10 10 10 0
Evergreen 89 70 91 72 / 10 10 0 0
Waynesboro 89 70 93 72 / 20 10 0 0
Camden 87 70 90 72 / 30 10 0 0
Crestview 92 72 94 74 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 15, 6:13 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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