CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 2:14 PM EDT248
FXUS61 KCLE 171814
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
214 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall, the forecast remains on track. Confidence in strong to
severe storms Saturday afternoon/evening continues to increase,
although there is still uncertainty in timing.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wildfire smoke will produce poor air quality and reduce
visibilities today.
2) A few showers/storms are possible as early as this evening. Strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon into
early Saturday evening.
3) Very warm temperatures will persist through Saturday before
cooler weather arrives for Sunday and the middle next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Northwest flow will pull additional wildfire smoke into the
area through much of today, resulting in continued reduced
visibilities and unhealthy to hazardous air quality conditions.
Visibilities will likely be reduced to 1 to 2 miles through at
least this morning with locally worse visibilities possible.
Local and state partnering agencies have issued Air Quality
Alerts areawide through midnight tonight. Conditions should
gradually improve from the southwest this afternoon into tonight
as flow becomes more south/southwesterly in response to a warm
front lifting into the region. By the predawn hours Saturday
morning, it's possible that patchy smoke is only present across
far NW PA. In addition, any precipitation should help improve
air quality.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will return as the
aforementioned warm front lifts northeast into the region this
evening and tonight, although confidence in coverage/placement
of storms is low at this point. Storms should be relatively
elevated later this evening and it's possible that precip
struggles to develop due to the stabilizing effects from the
wildfire smoke. Any stronger storms should largely remain to the
southwest of the area this evening. Showers/storms should exit
to the east by mid-morning Saturday, although some CAMs have
showers/storms lingering in the warm sector throughout the
morning. By Saturday afternoon, additional showers/storms will
develop with a pre-frontal trough as low pressure deepens to
the north of the area. The storms will push southeast across the
area as a cold front begins to move southeast into the local
area early Saturday evening.
Conditions still appear to be favorable for organized convection
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Strong southwest flow
will advect moisture into the region with PWAT values increasing
to 1.5 to 2 inches and dew points rising into the upper 60s and
lower 70s by Saturday afternoon. If showers and remaining
clouds move out of the area in the morning, MLCAPE values will
likely reach 2500-3000 J/kg during the afternoon, which would
certainly support a damaging wind gust threat. A LLJ will move
over the region and expect shear values of 30 to 40 knots with
the highest shear values close to the lakeshore and over NE
OH/NW PA. As a result, storm mode will likely be a QLCS with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A few brief tornadoes
can't be ruled along the leading edge of the line given the
shear profile. The entire area is in a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) of severe weather, although locations generally along and
east of I-71 are highlighted with greater probabilities of
damaging wind gusts and a slightly more enhanced tornado risk
due to the higher shear values.
Dry weather will return for Sunday, although shower and
thunderstorm chances increase as the next system crosses the
area late Monday into Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Smoke will help mitigate hazardous temperatures today, but
still expect highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of
the area. Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer on Saturday
and heat index values may flirt with 100 degrees over portions
of northwestern and north-central Ohio Saturday afternoon. That
said, there may be clouds and showers/storms around during peak
heating which would result in cooler maximum temperature/heat
index values. At this point, confidence in heat index values
reaching Heat Advisory criteria is low and isolated.
Temperatures will cool considerably Sunday; highs will only be
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Temps will warm by several degrees
Monday and Tuesday before below normal temps return for mid to
late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Dense smoke will maintain IFR visibilities at all terminals
through late afternoon before gradually improving from west to
east this evening and tonight, but it will take until daybreak Saturday
morning to complete clear out of KERI. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a warm
front this evening and push east overnight. Confidence is low on
any cells impacting a particular terminal, but they should be in
the vicinity of KTOL and KFDY in the roughly 23 to 03Z timeframe
and be in the vicinity of KCAK, KYNG, and KERI in the roughly
05 to 10Z timeframe. Any shower or thunderstorm could produce
brief heavy rain and MVFR or lower if it impacts a terminal. Dry
and VFR conditions are expected much of the morning through the
early afternoon until thunderstorms develop after the TAF period
ahead of a cold front.
Light and variable winds the rest of this afternoon and evening
will turn S to SW tonight, with SW winds increasing to 15-25
knots by late Saturday morning through the afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in showers and thunderstorms ahead
of a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms
could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts approaching 50
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Light and variable winds on Lake Erie early tonight will turn
SW and quickly increase to 15-20 knots by daybreak Saturday
behind a warm front. SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots by
Saturday afternoon, especially in the central and eastern
basins, so a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 14Z
Saturday through 00Z Sunday. The SW direction will keep the
highest waves in the open waters, with nearshore waves in the 3
to 5 foot range from Avon Point to Ripley. Winds will turn N
behind a cold front Saturday night and gradually decrease to
10-15 knots late, becoming NE at 5-10 knots Sunday. Winds will
quickly come around to SW at 5-10 knots Sunday night and Monday,
with SW winds increasing to 15-25 knots Monday night and Tuesday
ahead of another cold front, which will build waves to 3 to 5
feet. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed again at
that time. Winds will turn NW behind the front for Tuesday night
and Wednesday while gradually decreasing.
Visibilities will gradually improve on the lake this evening and
tonight from west to east as the smoke plume starts to move out,
but extended the Dense Smoke Advisory from Avon Point to Buffalo
through Midnight. Additionally, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms could bring locally high winds to 50 knots late
Saturday afternoon and early evening as it progresses
southeastward across the lake.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ003-
006>009-017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
LEZ142>149-162>169.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 2:14 PM EDT---------------
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