JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 2:00 PM EDT182
FXUS63 KJKL 141800
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend takes hold this week, with afternoon highs returning
to the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday.
- Mainly dry weather continues through Thursday, with only a slight
chance for an isolated afternoon storm in the far southern counties.
- A cold front approaching the Ohio Valley will bring increased
shower and storm chances Friday through the weekend, returning
temperatures to near normal.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
This morning's satellite imagery reveals a picturesque summertime
scene across Eastern Kentucky. Fog has lifted out of the area's
river valleys and dissipated, and diurnal warming processes are in
full swing, especially in the Bluegrass. Northwestern portions of
the forecast area are already under the influence of a broad
surface high pressure system, leaving them mostly sunny and dry.
Low pressure continues to spin further to the south in the
Tennessee River Valley, which has allowed some high cirrus-type
clouds to stream across our southern counties. These areas are
progged to remain slightly cooler today, as those clouds and a more
extensive diurnal cumulus field could lead to relatively filtered
heating in areas along the TN state line. Still expect afternoon
MaxTs to rebound into the mid/upper 80s area-wide though, as the
influence of that sfc high and the related ridging aloft will
only increase through mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
Temperatures range in the mid 60s to near 70F early this morning
across eastern Kentucky. Satellite shows tendrils of fog expanding
through the deeper river valleys. Additionally, a few high clouds
are drifting overhead. At the surface, a weak ~1017 mb low pressure
is situated over Alabama and Mississippi. Meanwhile, high
pressure ridging extends from Virginia across the Ohio Valley to
over Nebraska and Kansas. Looking aloft, an ~600 dam high,
centered near or over Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN, extends from the
Great Lakes to over the Colorado River Basin.
The upper-level high will elongate and shift southeastward to over
Virginia by late tonight and then weaken on Wednesday. Meanwhile,
the surface high pressure will settle southward and then become
more amorphous with time. During this time period, 850 hPa
temperatures will rise from around 17 to 18C this morning to 19
to 21C by late Wednesday, which will manifest in a warming trend.
In sensible terms, look for valley fog to lift and dissipate after
sunrise. A very warm and mostly sunny day will follow with an
extensive cumulus field developing across the southern half of the
CWA. It will be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s while dew
points hold comfortably in the 60s for most locations. Mostly
clear skies follow tonight with lows dipping back into the 60s.
Fog is likely to form again in the sheltered valleys. Looking
ahead to Wednesday, the fair weather will continue with afternoon
temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
The period is expected to begin with an enlongated 595 dm 500 mb
upper level ridge axis extending from off the VA and NC coast
northwest across WV to sections of the Plains/SD and then southwest
into parts of the Great Basin/SW Conus. Well to the north of eastern
KY, an upper level low should be centered over Ontario with a
shortwave rotating from Hudson Bay to the James Bay At the same
time, guidance has an upper level low centered in western TX at that
point with a rather moist airmass lingering across much of the
southeast to central Appalachians. An upper low is progged to be
nearing the Pacific northwest as well. At the surface, a weak rather
diffuse boundary, may initially be in place from the coast of the
Carolinas across sections of the southern Appalachians to OK with
sfc high pressure centered over the eastern KY to southern WV
vicinity.
Wednesday night to Thursday night, the upper level ridge is progged
to weaken and become centered in the Bermuda vicinity as the
shortwave trough initially in Canada rotates to the St Lawrence
Valley/Northeast and the upper low meanders to the Maritimes
vicinity. Meanwhile guidance suggests a weak 500 mb upper low/trough
may develop in the southern Appalachians or Southeast. This could
lead to some diurnally driven convection for areas generally near or
west of the I-75 corridor closer to this system and where deeper
moisture should be focused. Seasonably warm temperatures should also
prevail with increasingly warmer overnight temperatures.
Friday to Saturday night, the upper low is progged to remain over
eastern sections of Canada/Maritimes vicinity with upper level
ridging becoming centered east of Bermuda in the Atlantic and
sections of the Rockies/Plains. The general guidance consensus is
for an upper level trough to develop from eastern Canada across the
eastern Great Lakes to the Appalachians. There remains some
differences in the timing and evolution of this. As this trough
begins to take shape a sfc cold front should drop south of the
Great Lakes and toward the Lower OH Valley region to begin the
weekend. A warm and moist airmass is progged to remain to its
south. Passing disturbances and the front could result in
convection at any point though diurnal peaks Friday and Saturday
afternoon are probable. With more in the way of convection and
cloud cover each day, high temperatures should fall back to mid
July normals.
Sunday and Monday, upper level troughing is progged to remain from
eastern Canada across portions of the Great Lakes and into the OH
Valley region while upper level ridging remains centered in the
Rockies/CO vicinity and extends across parts of the western Conus
and into the Southern Plains vicinity. The sfc cold front may drop
south of eastern KY to end the weekend and begin next week. This
should result in greater chances for convection peaking near the
diurnal cycle on Sunday, though unsettled weather should linger into
Monday. High temperatures should be a couple of degrees below normal
to begin next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR conditions are observed across the terminals this afternoon,
with a diurnal cu field currently draped across southern
Kentucky. Southwestern terminals could see deeper cu and a stray
shower or two this evening, but rain chances were not high enough
to explicitly mention this in the 18z TAFs. Confidence is higher
in the formation of river valley fog tonight, and TEMPOs have been
introduced at KSME and KLOZ for potential vsby reductions between
08z and 12z. LAMP and BUFKIT guidance bolsters confidence in fog
formation at these two terminals, but it cannot be ruled out
elsewhere, especially later in the morning as fog lifts towards
the ridgetop terminals after sunrise. The forecast looks similar
tomorrow, with fog mixing out in the morning and giving way to
another diurnal cu field (albeit with less spatial coverage).
Expect light and variable sustained winds through the period, with
the occasional wind gust up to 15 knots during peak diurnal
mixing.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARCUS
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MARCUS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 2:00 PM EDT---------------
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