CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 2:07 PM EDT196
FXUS61 KCLE 131807
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
207 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Opted to issue a Heat Advisory for Northwest Ohio and portions of
North Central Ohio for Tuesday. Additional Heat Advisories may be
needed for Wednesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will build early this week with peak heat index
values in the mid 90s to low 100s.
2) Periodic showers and thunderstorms return late this week and
continue into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Closed off 99th percentile mid/upper level high centered over the
Upper Midwest will gradually drift southward into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley region. Heat and humidity are expected to build
across the region Tuesday into Wednesday as 850mb temperatures, also
99th percentile, peak near 23-25C. Have issued a Heat Advisory for
Northwest Ohio and portions of North Central Ohio, including
Cuyahoga County, for Tuesday as heat index values rise to 100-103 F.
Another day of heat headlines will likely be needed on Wednesday for
a similar geographical extent, but opted to hold off on issuing for
Wednesday with this forecast package. Widespread Major HeatRisk
(Level 3 of 4) is expected both Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensure that
you remain hydrated and consider adjusting outdoor plans to the
cooler parts of the day.
The upper high will gradually flatten and dissipate over the Ohio
Valley mid/late this week. A cold front passes south Wednesday night
but it will remain warm with highs in the 90s. However, peak heat
index values will lower to the mid 90s for Thursday and Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper level ridge moves west as an upper level trough
and surface cold front sink south from the Northeast towards
the eastern Great Lakes near the end of the week. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Friday evening through the
weekend in the wake of the cold front. Some thunderstorms this
weekend may reach strong to severe limits but confidence in
timing and extent remains low given lower confidence in
magnitude, track, and timing of the aforementioned upper level
trough.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will persist through this period as
high pressure remains dominant over the area. Diurnal, scattered
cu are possible this afternoon into the evening, but should
remain above 4kft. Overnight, skies clear out before another
round of cu develops late Tuesday morning into the afternoon
hours. KCLE and KERI are currently being impacted by a lake
breeze that developed with north-northwest winds around 10 knots
being observed. As the sun sets, all winds will become light and
variable through the overnight hours. Winds will increase to
5-10 knots from the west-southwest mid-morning on Tuesday.
Outlook...VFR favored through Thursday. Non-VFR chances increase
starting late Friday into the weekend with showers and
thunderstorms possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected under high pressure. Light
winds will become southwesterly and increase to 10-15 knots
overnight tonight and persist through Wednesday morning. Winds
shift westerly during the day Wednesday before turning northerly
behind a cold front Wednesday evening. Northerly winds Wednesday
night through Thursday afternoon should remain at 10 knots or
less. Waves may build to around 2 feet with the onshore flow but
are otherwise expected to remain at 2 feet or less through the
week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for OHZ003-006>011-
017>019.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...04
MARINE...13
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 2:07 PM EDT---------------
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