PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 5:26 PM CDT436
FXUS63 KPAH 112226
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
526 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this afternoon
and into the evening. All severe hazards are possible.
- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through the
weekend. Additional storm total amounts of 0.75-2" is possible
with locally higher amounts possible as well. A Flood Watch is
in effect through late tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
A disturbance just to the north will work in tandem with a
boundary to produce scattered showers and storms today. Cloud
cover is slowing destabilization late this morning but some
breaks in cloud cover are occurring. Better instability is
located across the southern row of counties in KY and across
west Tennessee. The general consensus is for scattered
development this afternoon with activity pushing southeast into
the evening. The threat for severe weather will be supported by
30-35 knots of bulk shear and 1500-2500 J/Kg of CAPE.
The upper level disturbance is slow to move east into Sunday
but does move into portions of central Kentucky by then.
Northerly winds behind the low will bring drier air into the
region but chances for a few showers or storms remain in the
forecast for eastern areas. High pressure takes over next week
bringing drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures
gradually climb into the upper 80s by midweek and near 90 by the
end of the week. Lower end afternoon rain/storm chances are in
the forecast next week but coverage is expected to be much less
then what we have been seeing over the past several days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Scattered TSRA has developed across the region and will remain
possible across all terminals through sunset. Isolated stronger
storms are not ruled out, but will quickly diminish with the
loss of diurnal heating. MVFR/IFR cigs then become the main
concern across most terminals early Sunday morning, while KMVN
will be on the outer extent. Low cigs gradually transition to
VFR by Sunday afternoon, but there is a PROB30 for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm coverage across the eastern terminals.
Light & variable winds tonight become north between 5-10 kts on
Sunday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 5:26 PM CDT---------------
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