IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 12:36 AM EDT949
FXUS63 KIWX 100436
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1236 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widely scattered thunderstorms early this morning.
- Thunderstorms are also possible Friday afternoon and Saturday
but severe weather is not expected.
- Turning hot and dry next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026
Agreement between the GFS and ECMWF on slowly bringing a cold
front/thermal gradient southward between today and Friday
night/Saturday morning would indicate an, at best, marginal severe
weather risk with weak wind shear (<30 kts), but ample instability
(>2500 J/kg MUCAPE on the NAM) as well as 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE.
Trying to track forcing is an issue with weak impulses passing
through including a weak positively tilted trough. A weak low level
jet (~25 kts) shows itself in MI from this morning into the
afternoon and then there's also an attempt to organize a low
level jet out of MO overnight. It could be that the MO jet gets
cut off and moisture transport fails though. The midday jet
around MI appears to be colocated with large scale ascent at
times. However, the MO jet is slightly removed from the large
scale ascent on the ECMWF potentially contributing to its
failure. Two distinct peaks in PWATs around 2 inches or so
passing through include during peak heating this afternoon as
well as overnight. Sfc dew points exceed 70F while 850 mb dew
points exceed 10C. Meanwhile, as the previous shift noted, the
better moisture content identified by theta-e is farther west
and this appears to slide by to the southwest of the area or
just casually graze our southwest this afternoon into overnight.
Models are all over the place for Friday with some of the
guidance still retaining PoPs across the whole area whereas
there is a smattering of guidance keeping things south of
US-24/US-30 area. The more southward progression could be
possible if a cold pool/outflow boundary sets up from overnight
convection. All of this considered, am fine with the marginal
risk of severe weather advertised by SPC, which could be aided
by cell collisions, differential heating, and the high theta-e
airmass. Wind and heavy rain appear to be the main threats along
with lightning. With the cold front slowly pushing through, the
dew points exceeding 70F and highs exceed 90F in our southeast,
this would indicate apparent temperatures in the 90s, at least,
for this afternoon. These do appear to slowly trend lower as
highs dip back into the 80s with the FROPA. Dew points abate
later Friday/Friday night with the FROPA.
It is interesting to see that there are still models trying to
produce showers in the relative dryness on Saturday. I'm not
sold on this, but will include some slight chances for that. The
GFS appears out to lunch, but the NAM/ECMWF appear to have a
better handle on things, which show the greatest chance during
the afternoon Saturday.
After Saturday, a high pressure system and mid level ridging stall
across the area providing dry weather from Sunday until at least the
middle to end of next week (7/15-7/17 time frame) as a backdoor
front attempts to come in. It appears to be a sort of MCS pattern
with plenty of heat around. 850 mb temps creep above 18C and
sfc dew points surpass 70F Tuesday and Wednesday of next week
indicating potential heat headlines if enough insolation can be
had.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Widely scattered storms will remain possible through 09-10z with
brief IFR/MVFR vis restrictions possible (currently seeing this
at KSBN). Weak mid level shortwave and deeper moisture will exit
off to the east by daybreak with dry conditions anticipated
through the early afternoon. Retained an MVFR group at KSBN
10-16z as some stratus/BR may attempt to fill in given light
winds, late clearing and moist low levels. Moisture/instability
axis will linger over northern IN this afternoon with diurnally
driven, scattered, convection redeveloping.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 12:36 AM EDT---------------
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