MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 1:33 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...946
FXUS64 KMOB 071833
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026
- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon
through the end of the week.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning can be expected with any storms.
- A Moderate risk of rip currents exists for Florida beaches
this afternoon and for all area beaches Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026
A weak, positively-tilted upper trough with a cutoff low over the
mid-Mississippi Valley will gradually weaken and lift northeast
through Thursday, yielding a weak zonal flow pattern by late
week. Seasonably high moisture, with PWATs around 2 inches, and
strong instability will support a typical summertime pattern
through Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms each
afternoon, focused mainly across the interior and along sea
breeze and outflow boundaries. Activity shifts to the coast and
offshore late at night near the land breeze. Any storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rain, frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning, and localized gusty winds.
Looking ahead to the weekend, ensemble guidance indicates increasing
moisture ahead of a large-scale backdoor cold front approaching the
area by the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Moisture pooling and enhanced
forcing associated with the boundary with a northwesterly flow aloft
should result in increased storm coverage during that period. Trends
will be monitored for any strong storm and/or heavy rain potential.
Temperatures will remain seasonably hot through the period, with
afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s. Overnight
conditions offer little relief with lows in the mid 70s inland and
upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Peak afternoon heat indices in
the 100-107 range are expected, with the chance of a few localized
spots briefly reaching 108 degrees. A Moderate risk of rip currents
continues today for Florida beaches before decreasing to a Low risk
for Wednesday and Thursday. The risk the increases to Moderate on
Friday for all area beaches, which is expected to persist into the
weekend. JGC/98
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period. Current light
southwesterly winds will wane after sunset and become generally
westerly at 5-10 knots tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms
return to the area this afternoon into the early evening and again
along/just off the coast tomorrow morning. These storms are
accompanied by drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within
the strongest storms. SS/97
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 94 76 92 / 20 30 10 30
Pensacola 80 94 80 92 / 20 30 20 30
Destin 81 92 81 91 / 30 20 30 30
Evergreen 73 95 74 93 / 20 20 20 40
Waynesboro 73 94 73 94 / 20 40 20 30
Camden 73 93 74 92 / 20 20 20 40
Crestview 75 96 76 94 / 20 30 10 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 1:33 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...---------------
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