LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 2:48 PM EDT950
FXUS63 KLMK 061848
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
248 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry through early next week. Moisture associated with tropical
cyclone Beryl look increasingly more likely to move into the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys starting as early as Tuesday. Heavy
rainfall will be possible at times through the middle of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Broad surface high pressure will keep conditions relatively calm and
quiet through the near term. The afternoon cu-field should steadily
dissipate as we approach sunset and give way to clear skies. High
pressure centered over MO/AR will steadily drift into the Ohio
Valley by dawn tomorrow, allowing winds going light to calm
overnight. This should result in a pretty optimal radiational
cooling setup and lows by sunrise tomorrow will likely fall into the
low/mid 60s for many locations. River valley fog is also likely in
the typical fog-prone locations.
Conditions tomorrow should be very similar to today, with only
slightly warmer temperatures anticipated as low-level thicknesses
rise. Highs will likely climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, though
with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s that should help to take a
slight 'edge' off the heat.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Low level moisture will begin to steadily return to the region
Monday as flow takes on a more southerly component. With the
increased moisture, we should see capping in the low levels erode by
the afternoon. Without much in the way of a forcing mechanism in
place, any convection that does develop will be isolated/scattered
in nature.
As early as Tuesday, a moisture plume ahead of what is left of
tropical cyclone Beryl will advance into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Beryl's track will be largely influenced by how troughing
evolves over the central U.S., but the latest guidance has us under
the influence of its moisture through at least Wednesday (or
Thursday, depending on the model). Too early to say how much rain
may fall given we're several days out, but the potential for heavy
rainfall certainly exists. There are even some synoptic signals for
a potential Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) ahead of the main
circulation of Beryl which will need to be watched closely.
Beryl and its associated moisture should lift out of the region by
Thursday or Friday, though we may still stay unsettled at times
going into the early weekend as the aforementioned central U.S.
trough is slow to move/lift.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
Fair weather cumulus with 4-6kft bases has developed this afternoon
in the wake of a weak cold front. Warmer air near 850mb will keep
these clouds from having any sort of vertical growth and we should
stay dry through the day. Winds will remain out of the west or WNW
through the early evening hours.
Overnight, skies will clear out and winds will go light to calm as
surface high pressure passes nearby. Could see some patchy fog
develop toward dawn in our more typical fog-prone sites. Otherwise,
any fog that develops tomorrow morning should quickly dissipate
shortly after dawn.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...DM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 2:48 PM EDT---------------
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