ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 2:23 AM EDT323
FXUS61 KILN 050623
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
223 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the
weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Continue to see a weak boundary traversing our CWA causing
mostly showers. The boundary will shift off to the east shortly
after midnight leaving another quiet night. Guidance is
signaling for low cloud and patchy fog development late, so will
continue to keep clouds in the forecast through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and
moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig
into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday. This will
provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day with the passage of the front moving through during the
evening hours. There will likely be some cloud cover extending
northward from convection to the south so thunderstorm coverage
is expected to be quite limited during the first part of the
day.
As the front approaches during the afternoon and evening,
diurnal heating will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms
across the area. Due to the lack of strong and focused forcing,
development is expected to be quite disorganized with the best
potential for stronger storms across and east of the Scioto
River Valley region.
Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the
overnight period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday.
Temperatures will start off a bit below normal on Saturday and
warm to above normal by Monday. A short wave will track out of
the central part of the country and cross the region late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mid level
troughing will persist beyond this time although surface ridging
will eventually build in. This will lead to nearly seasonal
temperatures and another generally dry period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A very moist airmass remains in place today. In the post rain
environment expect fog and stratus to develop with IFR
conditions likely at all TAF sites.
Ceilings and vsbys will lift and improve after sunrise. An
upper level low will track from the Upper MS Valley into the
Great Lakes today. Moderate instability will support the
development of storms ahead of a cold front that sweeps east
across the TAF sites late in the day. IFR conditions will be
possible in any of these storms. Some of the stronger storms
will be capable of producing strong winds.
Storm threat ends late in the day into early evening with clouds
scattering out and VFR conditions expected heading into this
evening.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 2:23 AM EDT---------------
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