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390 FXUS64 KLIX 180803AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA303 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or southof a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulfto the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their currentnortheastward movement, could produce a training scenario producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03ZLIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear, however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for theremainder of the short term forecast period will be the potentialfor some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday. The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulusfield across the area on Sunday, but shouldn't have a major impacton temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered,won't depart from the NBM numbers. &&.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas onSunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower MississippiRiver Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf throughthe end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhatsouthward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears thatsignificant precipitation will be hard to come by through the endof the work week next week after this morning's rain. Unlikely tobe much in the way of change in temperatures from day to dayduring the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees abovenormal. &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024Earlier IFR or lower conditions have actually improved to VFR atmost terminals since the 06z TAF package was issued. Only KGPT atthe high end of IFR ceilings was producing flight restrictions. Aside from the threat of TSRA over the next 3-6 hours, there remains at least some threat of IFR or lower conditions, at least briefly, through mid morning. MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR after 18z if not sooner, with VFR conditions through the end of the 06z TAF package forecast range. &&.MARINE...Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, asany winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively relatedthis morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastalwaters later today or this evening. Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through much or all of next week. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 84 65 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 89 70 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 86 69 92 69 / 60 0 0 0 MSY 85 73 90 74 / 60 0 0 0 GPT 82 69 90 70 / 80 10 0 0 PQL 84 68 92 67 / 90 10 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ036-037-039-046>048- 056>060-064-065-071-076>090.GM...None.MS...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MSZ077-083>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RWLONG TERM....RWAVIATION...RWMARINE...RW
