WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 28, 7:38 AM CDT494
AGUS74 KWCO 281245
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #131 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
738 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Locally considerable flash flooding
WHERE: Central Kentucky into northeast Tennessee
WHEN: Through this morning
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 4", locally higher (HRRR/WPC)
QPE: 3 - 10" (Past 24 hrs, MRMS)
Rainfall Rates: 1 - 2"/hr (WPC)
Soil Moisture: Saturated
Streamflows: High (Observed)
DISCUSSION...
Locally considerable flash flooding remains possible across the area
of concern through this morning as rounds of highly
efficient/training thunderstorms produce heavy rainfall over an
already saturated region. The greatest concern remains across central
Kentucky, which received the heaviest rainfall during the previous 24
hours and where significant flooding impacts are ongoing. Additional
rainfall and runoff may further exacerbate ongoing flooding impacts
and result in rapid rises on area streams and creeks, with renewed
flash flooding possible, especially in urban areas.
The NWM SRF continues to highlight widespread rapid-onset flooding
potential, along with high magnitude hydrologic responses (annual
exceedance probabilities between 10 - 2%), particularly across
Grayson and McCreary counties in Kentucky (not shown). SRF Peak Flow
Forecasts (shown right) continue to highlight a prolonged hydrologic
threat, with additional significant rises likely through the morning
before many streams and creeks reach their forecast peaks. However,
these HRRR-forced NWM signals are likely underdone, as the HRRR
continues to underperform. Consequently, current model output likely
underrepresents the true extent and magnitude of the flash flood
threat. Given recent rainfall, forecast rainfall rates, and saturated
antecedent conditions, additional hydrologic responses appear likely,
with locally considerable flash flooding possible, especially in
urban areas, low-lying locations, and other flood-prone areas.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Freeman
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 28, 7:38 AM CDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
