IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 25, 12:38 AM EDT863
FXUS63 KIWX 250438
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1238 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning.
- Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
- High temperatures will climb into the mid-upper 80s Sunday and
low-mid 90s Monday into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026
A weak shortwave out ahead of a broad upper level trough led to
showers in the far northwest this morning into the early-mid
afternoon. The upper level trough swings through later this
afternoon into the overnight hours, bringing better potential for
showers and isolated storms (especially this evening). SPC clips our
western forecast area in a marginal risk for strong-severe storms
along/ahead of the cold front (slight risk near La Porte/Starke,
Counties, IN). In this area we will have some available sfc
instability (500-1500 J/kg) and around 30-40kts of bulk effective
shear. The mid level lapse rates are fairly paltry--so I suspect
this may keep our storms limited (around 5.5-6 C/km). Cloud cover
and rain showers may also limit our ability to heat up in the north
and west, so we'll see how much we can recover in terms of surface
instability later.
If we do get strong-severe storms it will be towards the late
afternoon/evening hours, probably 6-11 pm EDT. Storms should weaken
as they move eastward and we lose our daytime heating instability.
If any storms do become severe, damaging winds and large hail are
the primary threats. If storms can become more supercellular further
west and move into our area, we do have a 2% tornado risk (15-20kts
of 0-1km shear)...but confidence in this is pretty low. Otherwise,
expect rain showers and variable cloud cover into tonight with lows
in the upper 50s, low 60s.
Chances (20-30 percent) for showers and isolated storms continue
into Thursday, mainly along and south of US 30 in the
afternoon/early evening hours. Severe weather is not expected at
this time. Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.
Another trough and surface low pressure system cross the area on
late Thu PM into Saturday AM, with the best chances for
precipitation and thunderstorms along/south of US 30 (60-80
percent). Elsewhere, expect around 20-50 percent chances. Highs will
be in the mid-upper 70s, low 80s.
An upper level ridge builds in for Saturday into early next week,
bringing high temps into the mid-upper 80s, low-mid 90s (esp.
Tue/Wed). There are some low-end chances for showers and storms in
this period (20-30 percent)-especially late Sat PM-Sun AM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are departing KSBN but
continue at KFWA. Lightning is on the decline for a small
segment of storms SSW of KASW, but is otherwise destined for
KFWA. Behind this activity, stratus and perhaps BR is forecast
to develop as northwest flow and subsidence take shape.
Confidence is higher at KSBN for IFR stratus, while confidence
is lower at KFWA due to a later departure time of -SHRA this
morning.
Decreasing clouds after daybreak and westerly wind increasing.
Isolated thunderstorms toward KFWA in the afternoon, but
coverage appears to be sparse and the onset location uncertain.
Will continue to monitor trends in high resolution guidance and
provide an update at 12Z. High confidence is dry conditions this
afternoon at KSBN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 25, 12:38 AM EDT---------------
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