CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 21, 4:08 PM EDT271
FXUS61 KCLE 212008
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
408 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
QPF for tonight into Monday has trended a bit lower with this
update, but otherwise the forecast is on track and no significant
changes were needed.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain is expected and thunderstorms are possible
tonight into Monday. Rain may be moderate at times.
2) Dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected through
early to mid week with temperatures warming and rain chances
returning late week into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley and far southern
reaches of the forecast area late tonight into Monday. Showers will
attempt to overspread the region late this afternoon into this
evening, although it will likely remain virga for several hours due
to dry lower levels. Precipitation will likely become a bit
more scattered with periodic dry periods near or shortly after
12Z/8 AM Monday morning, although some CAMs (including the 12Z
HRRR) have dry air working into the region earlier than that.
Rain could be moderate at times, however QPF has trended down
further. Around an inch of rain is possible across portions of
northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania with locally higher
amounts possible, although locations south of U.S. Route 30 may
only see up to 0.75 inches of rain at most. Some nuisance
ponding cannot be ruled out in low-lying and poor drainage areas
that get over an inch of rain, but the flooding risk is
relatively low at this point.
Elevated thunderstorms remain possible tonight into early Monday,
although severe weather is not anticipated. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms may perk up a bit during peak diurnal heating east of
I-71, although instability will likely largely be to the southeast
of the local area.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Below normal temperatures are expected Monday and in more zonal
flow Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s Monday before rising into the mid to upper 70s by
Wednesday. Temps moderate late week into the weekend with highs
likely returning to the mid 80s in many spots by Sunday. Dry
weather will return to the region Monday night through Wednesday
with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances returning as a
series of disturbances move across the region Wednesday night
through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Low pressure will track through the upper Ohio Valley on Monday.
It will remain VFR the rest of this afternoon ahead of a batch
of rain that will accompany this low pressure. Initial light
rain showers begin spreading in from the west late this evening,
with the steadiest and heaviest rain likely late tonight into
early Monday. Rain will trend more intermittent and showery
during the day Monday, though a band of more organized and
moderate showers may develop across Northwest Ohio Monday
morning and pivot east-southeast across the area through the
afternoon, bringing another period of more notable rain.
Ceilings will not fall much until rain starts, then will
gradually fall to a mix of IFR and low MVFR by early Monday.
Ceilings will largely fall to MVFR during steadier or more
intense rain, though downpours with a period of IFR visibility
are possible early Monday morning, especially at TOL and CLE.
Winds are light this afternoon, ranging from northwesterly
across Northeast OH/Northwest PA and more southwesterly towards
Northwest OH. Winds shift east-northeast across the board and
increase to 6-12kt tonight. Winds will remain northeast on
Monday across Northwest OH and closer to Lake Erie farther east,
but will briefly shift southwesterly from MFD-CAK-YNG points
south on the south side of the low track. Northeast winds will
increase to 8-15kt (with a few gusts to 25kt near Lake Erie) on
Monday, with the southwest winds a bit lighter at 5-10kt.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely lingers Monday afternoon and evening in
showers and lower ceilings. Non-VFR possible again in rain
showers Wednesday night through Thursday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure will track out of the Mississippi Valley tonight
and across northern Ohio on Monday, departing to the east Monday
evening and night. This low pressure is not extremely strong,
but the track will be favorable for elevated east to north
winds across Lake Erie. Winds will quickly shift east this
evening and increase to 15-25kt across the western and central
basins overnight tonight, peak at 20-25kt across much of the
lake Monday morning and afternoon while gradually shifting more
northeast, then decrease from west to east late Monday into
Monday night while shifting northerly. Waves will peak at 4 to
7 feet across the central basin on Monday. Have made some minor
adjustments to the timing of the Small Craft Advisory and Beach
Hazards Statement, and expanded the headlines to include
Ashtabula County and Erie County PA. Generally tranquil marine
conditions are on tap Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT Monday through Monday
afternoon for OHZ003-007.
Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT Monday through Monday
evening for OHZ009>011.
Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday
evening for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday
evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for LEZ142-
143.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for
LEZ144>146.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 21, 4:08 PM EDT---------------
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