IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 1:20 PM EDT531
FXUS63 KIND 191720
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
120 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers are possible late tonight and Saturday morning
- Widespread rain will be around for Sunday into early Monday,
with heavy rain and isolated severe storms possible
- Below normal temperatures will continue for much of the period
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Only minor adjustments made to the hourly temperatures over the next
couple of hours to account for slightly faster than expected warming
this morning. Highs may top out a degree or two above the upper 70s
that are forecast based on current 850mb temps, but will continue to
monitor that going into the afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Today...
Quiet weather is expected today with surface high pressure in
control. Passing high clouds will give way to some cumulus this
afternoon, so skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs
today will be in the middle 70s north to around 80 south.
Tonight and Saturday...
A weakening upper trough will move into the lower Great Lakes by 12Z
Saturday, and an associated weak cold front will move into Indiana.
Moisture will be limited for this system to work with. Still, feel
there will be enough for isolated showers to make it into the
northern forecast area very late tonight into Saturday morning.
By afternoon, forcing will have weakened enough that chances for
showers will be too low to mention, so will go dry. (Odds are very
low but non-zero, so a rogue shower could still pop up Saturday
afternoon.)
Lows tonight will mainly be around 60 with highs on Saturday in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
Sunday and Monday...
A stronger upper wave and associated surface low pressure system
will move through the area during this time. This system will have
much better moisture to work with good moisture transport into the
area. Forcing combined with this moisture will bring widespread
rainfall to the area, especially Sunday afternoon and night.
In addition, the system will have decent shear and instability with
it. This will lead to a threat of isolated strong to perhaps severe
storms. However, at the moment it looks like heavy rain will be the
main threat. Rainfall totals over 2 inches are possible.
Tuesday and beyond...
Tuesday will be quiet, but a couple of upper systems could bring
rain to the area Wednesday into Friday. Confidence in the strength
and timing of these remains low, so will have some broadbrushed
lower PoPs.
The upper pattern will keep temperatures below normal through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Impacts:
- WNW winds gusts near 20kt this afternoon
- VCSH tonight early Sat morning and again Saturday afternoon
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Scattered to occasional broken clouds this afternoon will diminish
by this evening with loss of daytime heating. WNW wind gusts are
already near peak values (around 20 kts) and will continue until the
22-23Z period.
Overnight a weak storm system over the upper Midwest will move SE
across central Indiana. With this system increasing mid level clouds
and scattered very light showers will develop. Carrying VCSH to
account for this activity.
For tomorrow, skies will clear out by mid morning with passing of
this system. However in the wake of this system, sufficient
moistening of the low layers combined with residual instability
should favor some shower development during the afternoon. Some
models are hinting at even TS potential but this is conditional in
how deep the moisture will be. For now, will carry VCSH starting
after 18Z at KIND. In addition west winds will increase by midday
but gusts should remain sub 20 kts.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...White
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 1:20 PM EDT---------------
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