ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 6:24 AM EDT738
FXUS61 KILN 191024
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
624 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain, possibly heavy, expected Sunday into Monday.
2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1) Rain, possibly heavy, expected Sunday into Monday.
Quiet conditions are expected Friday and Saturday, with surface high
pressure over the area, although a few light showers could occur in
the northern ILN CWA on Saturday. Attention will then turn to an
upstream shortwave on Sunday, possibly with a weak surface low, which
will move east into the northern Ohio Valley late Sunday into Sunday
night. Theta-e advection ahead of this wave will bring an increase in
moisture, with widespread precipitation expected to develop ahead of
the wave. The most favorable timing for precipitation currently looks
like late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. Some weak
instability will be present, though the potential for strong to
severe convection appears slim, owing to very marginal instability
and moist-adiabatic sounding profiles. Nonetheless, a swath of heavy
rain appears possible, so some threat for flooding may end up
developing during this time frame.
Deeper moisture will gradually shift southward, with a cold front
moving in behind the wave. It is not entirely clear how cleanly this
cold front will make it through the CWA, but precipitation chances
will be shifting southward by the daytime hours Monday, mainly
impacting the southern portions of the forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week.
Behind the system on Monday, dry high pressure will move into the
area, with temperatures remaining a little below normal. Chances for
precipitation generally appear low through the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the
exception of some valley fog at KLUK early this morning. Otherwise,
there will be some cumulus development today, with WNW winds that
may gust to around 20 knots during the afternoon. Lighter WNW winds
are expected overnight into Saturday morning.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through
Monday. MVFR conditions are possible on Monday as well.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hatzos
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 6:24 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
