Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1184 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch prob: 60%] [Most Prob: Tornado: UP TO 90 MPH, Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]472
ACUS11 KWNS 181743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181743
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-181845-
Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...central/eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and the
western Carolinas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 181743Z - 181845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to re-intensify this afternoon with
potential for damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues across
portions of central/eastern Kentucky into the Carolinas this
afternoon. This is ongoing in the vicinity of a differential heating
zone/residual outflow from morning storm activity. Daytime heating
across this zone has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s
across southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee, with around
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE analyzed in SPC Mesoanalysis. Westerly deep
layer flow continues to support around 30-40 kts of boundary shear
to support organization. The parallel orientation of this shear to
the boundary will likely support clustering of storms and multi-cell
modes. Coverage of thunderstorms will likely increase this
afternoon, with potential for several clusters spreading eastward
through the afternoon. The main hazard is expected to be damaging
wind.
..Thornton/Hart.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 37617939 37708033 37798192 37638508 37408598 36728600
36198566 36398354 36198140 36278063 36577926 36957898
37577909 37617939
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1184 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch prob: 60%] [Most Prob: Tornado: UP TO 90 MPH, Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]---------------
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