BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 15, 3:10 PM EDT895
FXUS61 KBOX 151910
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
310 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- More seasonable temperatures, dry weather and comfortable
humidities through Tuesday night. Scattered pop-up showers in
far western New England later Wednesday afternoon.
- High astronomical tides with less than a foot of storm surge
could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening high tides
tonight and Tuesday night.
- Gusty southerly winds with some showers and perhaps a few
t-storms on Thursday. Watching the severe weather potential
too...But right now thinking main threat will be to our
southwest.
- Beautiful stretch of weather Fri through Mon with warm
afternoon/s with highs generally between 75 and 85 with
comfortable humidity.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...More seasonable temperatures, dry weather and
comfortable humidities through Tuesday night. Scattered pop-up
showers in far western New England later Wednesday afternoon.
Cyclonic flow aloft will govern Southern New England's weather
through Tuesday, and with it will brings a more refreshing Canadian
airmass. Cool advection tonight and Tuesday brings 850 mb temps
around +6 to +9C, which is about 4-6C cooler than we saw over the
weekend when temperatures reached into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Full sun, decreasing NW breezes tonight shifting to lighter W
breezes Tuesday, with seasonable temperatures in the 70s to low 80s,
with lows tonight and Tuesday night in the low to mid 50s. Dewpoints
in the upper 40s to mid 50s, so humidity levels are low. All in all,
really nice weather for mid-June!
Into Wednesday...a more modest warm advection pattern develops ahead
of a disturbance aloft moving through the Great Lakes and into
northern New England. Although most of the day ends up dry,
increasing clouds with scattered showers develop into western New
England, mainly from Worcester to Willimantic westward and better
shot into the Berkshires. Instability looks lacking for a robust
thunder threat in these showers but couldn't rule out a rumble of
thunder in those locations. Highs top out in the upper 70s to lower
80s, with dewpoints a touch higher but should still be comfortable.
KEY MESSAGE 2...High astronomical tides with less than a foot
of storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the
evening high tides tonight and Tuesday night.
Astronomical tides will be building to their highest level tonight
Monday, peaking around 12.0 ft at Boston Harbor Monday evening, but
remaining elevated into Tuesday night. Forecast storm surge from
Stevens Institute and P-ETSS guidance suggests values around 0.5 to
0.7 feet tonight and Tuesday night. With hardly any wave action,
forecast total water level should be pretty similar to recent days.
Coastal Flood Statements continue for the southern and eastern
coasts for very minor tidal flooding into Tuesday night. We may be
able to get away with a Coastal Flood Statement vs an Advisory for
Nantucket for the Tuesday evening high tide, but will give later
shifts an opportunity to reassess that. The evening high tide cycles
tonight and Tuesday night are the periods we are most concerned for,
as those high tide magnitudes are higher.
This remains a low-ceiling/low-impact coastal flooding scenario,
with splashover or at worst minor coastal flooding in the usual
vulnerable shoreline roads (including but not limited to Easy Street
in Nantucket and Morrissey Blvd in Boston). However we'll carry
these headlines for more awareness, given that there are more
visitors to Southern New England who may not be as familiar with
coastal/tidal flooding.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Gusty southerly winds with some showers and
perhaps a few t-storms on Thursday. Watching the severe weather
potential too...But right now thinking main threat will be to
our southwest.
Low pressure tracking northeast across Quebec will allow a pre-
frontal trough/cold front to approach our region from the west on
Thursday. Ahead of these features a modest southwest LLJ of 45 to 55
knots will develop. This coupled with mixing will result in gusty
southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph developing. High temperatures
probably top out in the upper 70s to the middle 80s in most locales.
We do expect some showers to impact the region very late Wed night
into the first half of Thu morning with a warm front crossing the
region. Then we may see another round of scattered showers and
perhaps a few t-storms Thu afternoon/evening with the actual cold
front/shortwave. We will need to watch the risk for severe weather
too given strong wind fields...But right now thinking that the main
risk for this looks to be to our southwest where better instability
resides.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Beautiful stretch of weather Fri through Mon
with warm afternoon/s with highs generally between 75 and 85
with comfortable humidity.
Two closed upper level lows just south of Hudsons Bay will result in
height fields lower than normal Friday into the weekend across the
northeast. This will suppress deeper moisture to our south and result
in a beautiful stretch of weather. High temps will generally be
between 75 and 85 with comfortable humidity. Overnight low temps
will mainly be in the 50s to the lower 60s.
Generally dry weather is on tap over this time period too. Some
northern stream energy may result in a few brief diurnally driven
spot showers...But for the most part dry weather is expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
Through Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. NW winds around 10-12 kt with gusts 20-22 kt, easing
through sundown, then trending NW 5-10 kt for the evening.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: High Confidence.
VFR. NW/W winds less than 10 kts. Tuesday offers a better chance
for seabreezes, but would be late in the day (after 20z). Winds
then turn SWly Tuesday night around 5-10 kt.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Strength of NW winds
should suppress seabreeze development.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Juneteenth through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday Night: High confidence.
Winds and seas to remain below small craft advisory criterion
through Tuesday night. NW winds this afternoon around 15-20 kt
to subside to around 10-15 kt overnight. Winds then shift to W
around 10-15 kt Tuesday, coming around to southerly Tuesday
night. Seas to remain around 4 ft or less on all waters.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Frank/Loconto
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto
MARINE...Frank/Loconto
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 15, 3:10 PM EDT----------------
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