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888 FXUS64 KLIX 022046AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA346 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024The heat has been the big story today. Air temperatures are in the upper 90s to near 100 in some spots, but heat indices breaching 110 deg F are currently being observed across the CWA due to dew points resting in the upper 70s to near 80 deg F. These abnormally high temperatures are thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the region causing large-scale subsidence. This has also lowered today's rainfall coverage and confined it to near the coast, particularly in Terrebonne Parish along the sea breeze front, which is weaker than normal due to weak and variable winds across the CWA. These showers will dissipate once the sun sets as usual. Overnight lows will once again be above the climatological norm, failing to get below 80 deg F in most regions with the exception of the northshore and southwest Mississippi, who should reach the upper 70s. Game changer, I know...POPs tomorrow will be greater than they were today. Moisture content will increase areawide as the ridge starts to thin somewhat. Guidance also suggests that sea breeze development may begin earlier than usual due to the onshore as winds become more southerly and orients the boundary more perpendicular to the coastline, optimizing lift. Accordingly, rainfall may begin earlier than normal for the sea breeze. As a whole, temperatures will drop tomorrow as well due to the increased cloud cover with the aforementioned enhanced moisture content, but will still remain very hot with heat indices between 105-110 deg F. A heat advisory has been issued for areas along and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor tomorrow from 10AM through 7PM CT. A similar story will be in place on Wednesday Night into the Fourth of July - very warm overnight with high POPs and hot temperatures during the day, so make sure you account for this in your outdoor plans. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees possible. A heat advisory may be needed for Thursday, depending onthe moisture and PoPs, so this will need to be looked at more closely in the next forecast cycle. It is very difficult to pin down exact locations for where rain may fall in these situations, so please do not rely on exact CAM reflectivity output and make sure you have access to live radar imagery. Make sure to stay hydrated and limit time outdoors during peak daytime heating hours! DOLCE/MSW&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday night)Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024Heat still continues through the long term although we will have a little bit of a reprieve, relatively speaking at least. On Thursday and Friday we will have some higher PoP chances and coverage due to the ridge currently dominating over the area having a little bit of weakening. This should help keep the temperatures from getting to heat advisory levels in some spots but still can't rule it out especially for places that don't get any convection. It'll definitely be borderline. Out of all the days in the long term, Saturday would be the most likely to have a heat advisories. Meanwhile, we do continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. The official forecast track has it moving W/WNW towards Mexico (Yucatan, then towards northern Mexico/south tip of Texas). Beryl will be entering a unfavorable area for hurricanes through so there will be some weakening expected but the eventual track will depend on how much it weakens. Last Sunday morning there is still a long of uncertainty with wide model spread but as of right now Beryl is currently not a concern for the area in the next 7 days. But we are still watching Beryl very closely and we will let everyone know once we have more concrete information. -BL&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024TAFs are expected to be VFR for most of the forecast cycle. Theonly real issue that could knock down vis or ceilings are a fewlocalized thunderstorms that directly impact terminals. Thisshould generally be isolated and confined to the southernterminals. Other terminals could still see a storm or shower butwith the chances very low decided to omit it for now. Tomorrowwill have the better chances for storms so introduced VCTS at thevery end of the period for a few terminals. -BL&&.MARINE...Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024Benign marine conditions expected in the next 7 days. Generally,moderate (10-15kts) and southerly winds expected. There will bethe potential for daily morning showers and storms that could pose a hazard to mariners due to lightning. MSW&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 76 93 75 92 / 10 80 0 70 BTR 81 96 80 96 / 10 90 0 80 ASD 79 93 78 94 / 10 90 10 80 MSY 82 93 80 93 / 10 90 10 80 GPT 80 90 78 91 / 30 80 20 70 PQL 78 93 77 94 / 40 80 10 60 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-071-076-079>086. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ066>070.GM...None.MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068- 077-083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ069>071.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...MSWLONG TERM....BLAVIATION...BLMARINE...MSW
