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395 FXUS64 KMOB 251812AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL1212 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain possible early this morning through this evening. - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft across the marine area mid to late week. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches today and Wednesday.&&.DISCUSSION...Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain possible through this evening. - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft across the marine area mid to late week. - There is a high risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches today and Wednesday.A deep upper trough over the Mississippi River swings east over the river through tonight before the embedded upper low over the Great Lakes heads off. Shortwave energy moving through the base of the trough moves over the Southeast today into Wednesday, with a cold front moving over the Southeast today through Wednesday in response. The cold front will cross the forecast area beginning late this afternoon and be south of the marine portions of the forecast area around sunrise Wednesday. Ahead of the front, the 12z SPC HREF has a band of SBCapes over land in the 1500 J/kg range, with 0-1km helicities of 90-120m^s/2^s initially this afternoon, shifting southeast through the afternoon. RAP Bulk Shear values of 40-55kts are coincident with the tongue of greater instability. Upper divergence present earlier in the day has moved off, leaving little upper support. A wildcard is some guidances advertising a cap situated around 10k', limiting vertical development. By the numbers, damaging winds are possible, especially if the cap is broken and a cell gets into drier air above the cap. Also, rotating storms are possible, leading to an isolated tornado or two. Mid level lapse rates are meh (<6.0C) but hail remains a possibility. After Wednesday, post frontal cooler and drier air moves over the forecast area with upper flow becoming a drier northwesterly into Friday. The upper ridge flattens into the weekend as another series of upper troughs move over the Southeast beginning Saturday. A cold front moves over the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night, ushering in a drier airmass. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this weekend ahead of the front. Some guidance is advertising upglide showers early in the coming week as the front stalls just south of the forecast area. Any rowdy storms are hard to pin down at this time, with inconsistent moisture return and dynamics.Temperatures well above seasonal norms see a drop to near or below seasonal norms behind the first cold front tonight. High temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 are expected today, dropping to the mid to upper 50s for Friday. Some rebound occurs over the weekend (mid 60s to around 70) but drop back into the mid 50s to low 60s over most of the forecast area for the beginning of the coming week. Low temperatures see the same roller coaster, dropping from mostly 50s tonight to upper 20s north of Highway 84 to mid 30s south of I-10 Thursday night. With onshore flow becoming re-established over the weekend, low temperatures rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s for Saturday night. Temperatures drop into the around 40 to around 50 range for Monday night, with the slowing cold front limiting the influx of colder air over the forecast area for the beginning of the week.Onshore winds increase through the week, with a moderate to high Rip Risk today through Wednesday. The Rip Risk decreases into Friday, but increases to High for the coming weekend. /16 &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025MVFR to VFR conditions with southerly winds of 10 to 20 knots and gusty across the forecast area are expected to continue through the afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold front expected to cross the area tonight. Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms may cause issues across the area, with strong and variable winds, along with low end end MVFR or IFR conditions possible in the stronger storms, Post fropa, strong northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots and gusty are expected for Wednesday./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025A moderate onshore flow continues ahead of an approaching storm system from the west. A cold front will push through the coastal waters tonight into Wednesday morning, with a moderate to strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front and persisting through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect forlate Wednesday into Friday. Winds will become more easterly by Saturday, but still in the moderate to strong range, as high pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic states./16&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 79 57 70 40 / 60 50 0 0 Pensacola 78 63 72 44 / 40 70 0 0 Destin 78 64 74 45 / 30 70 10 0 Evergreen 80 55 70 36 / 60 80 0 0 Waynesboro 79 52 65 36 / 70 30 0 0 Camden 78 53 64 35 / 80 80 0 0 Crestview 80 59 74 37 / 30 80 10 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to noon CST Friday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.&&$$
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Topic: [Alert]MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 12:12 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... (Read 123 times)
