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508 FXUS64 KLIX 200554AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1154 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1022 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025- Widespread dense fog tonight into tomorrow morning. - A weak cold front will bring a chance for rain Thursday night and Friday.- Another weak cold front will bring additional chances for rain Monday night and Tuesday. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)Issued at 1022 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025A progressive southern stream pattern will remain in place throughthe short term period with a series of shortwave ridges andtroughs sliding through the Lower Mississippi Valley and GulfSouth. Initially, the region will continue to remain under theinfluence of a departing shortwave ridge axis, and this will keepconditions warm and unusually muggy for this time of year.Additionally, the light winds and high humidity in place willallow for an extensive fog bank with areas of embedded dense fogto continue to spread across the region in the next few hours.Dense fog probabilities remain very high at 60 percent or greateracross a large portion of the forecast area, and a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9 am. This fog will persist through the mid- morning hours before clearing as temperatures warm and daytime thermal mixing occurs. By the evening hours, increasingly difluent flow aloft will beginto take hold as the ridge pushes further to the east and a negatively tilted shortwave trough axis ejects from New Mexico into north Texas and Oklahoma. At the same time, a plume of deepertropical moisture will feed in on the back of increasingly stronger southerly flow across the forecast area. The combination of moisture and increased forcing aloft will support scattered shower development Thursday night into Friday. A few thunderstorms may also form, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability and keep overall updraft development and storm intensity on the lower end. Any storms that form will be weak and very short- lived.The parent shortwave driving this weak convective activity willbegin to shear out and fully dissipate by Friday evening over theOhio Valley. A weak frontal boundary is expected to slide into the area during the day on Friday and then stall and gradually dissipate along the coast by Friday evening as the parent systemdies out. Although the thermodynamic support is still limited, enough forcing along this weakening boundary will allow for scattered showers and few thunderstorms to continue developing into the afternoon hours. Overall, rain totals should be very light with maximum rainfall of half an inch or less anticipated. The front will fully dissipate Friday night and a building shortwave ridge axis moving in from the west will be the primary feature impacting our weather on Saturday. With no real cold or dry air advection occurring, temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 60s through the entire short term period. Humidity will also remain very high, and additional rounds of dense fog are expected to form both Friday night into Saturday morning and again Saturdaynight into Sunday morning. &&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday night)Issued at 1022 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025Little change in the overall upper level pattern is expected inthe first half of next week. A very progressive southern streamwill keep pushing shortwave ridges and troughs through the GulfSouth. Sunday will see a building shortwave ridge over the region.This will keep temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees above averageand a prevailing light onshore flow will also keep conditions fairly humid Sunday into Sunday night. As temperatures cool overnight, conditions once again look prime for fog to form Sundaynight into Monday morning.Heading into Monday afternoon, the ridge will quickly shift to theeast as another shortwave trough moves into the Plains states.This system will track to the east very quickly and is expected tobe in the Great Lakes region by Tuesday evening. This system isexpected to remain fairly strong as it moves to the east, so atrailing cold front will have a better chance of clearing thecoast. Ample warmth and moisture ahead of the front and a broadregion of increasing omega associated with the passage of theupper level trough axis will support another round of scatteredshower activity. Once again, despite the warm and moist low levelconditions, mid-level lapse rates remain fairly weak Monday nightinto Tuesday. With instability remaining limited, only a fewthunderstorms should fire up as the front moves through onTuesday and these storms will remain weak and short-lived. Weak cold air advection will take hold Tuesday night intoWednesday as a Pacific based airmass moves into the area.Temperatures will cool slightly, but overall readings will remaina good 5 degrees warmer than average for late November with highsin the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.Additionally, the front is expected to hang up just offshore inthe coastal waters over this period as the parent upper level lowquickly pulls into eastern Canada. This front will serve as afocusing mechanism for some isolated to widely scattered showeractivity Tuesday night into Wednesday. &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1022 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025Widespread LIFR and lower conditions are expected at all of theterminals through around 15z as an extensive fog bank forms overthe area. This fog bank will gradually lift between 15z and 18z astemperatures warm and the boundary layer mixes out. By 18z,prevailing VFR conditions will be the rule at all of theterminals. These conditions should last through the end of theforecast period at most of the terminals. However, there may somelow stratus that tries to build back in at NEW, ASD, and GPTbetween 04z and 06z. &&.MARINE...Issued at 1022 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025Fog will be the primary maritime concern this morning across thesounds and tidal lakes. This fog will linger into the late morninghours before clearing and a dense fog advisory is in effect forthese areas. By the afternoon hours, an approaching low pressuresystem and front will bring stronger southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots and slightly higher seas to the waters Thursday night into Friday. Scattered showers and a low threat of thunderstorm will accompany this weakening front on Friday. Winds will calm over theweekend to less than 10 knots as a high pressure system over the eastern Gulf becomes more dominant over the waters. However, another low pressure system will once again push winds and seas higher on Monday and Tuesday. Southerly flow should increase back into the 15 to 20 knot range over this period. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will also develop over the waters as this next storm system moves through.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 60 78 64 80 / 0 0 60 80 BTR 62 80 67 83 / 0 0 50 60 ASD 60 78 64 80 / 0 0 50 60 MSY 64 78 68 81 / 0 0 50 60 GPT 62 74 65 76 / 0 0 30 60 PQL 61 76 63 77 / 0 0 20 40 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for LAZ036-037-039- 048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538.MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ069>071-077- 083>088.GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
