CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 23, 1:58 PM EST513
FXUS61 KCLE 231858
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns tonight into Monday before pushing east as low
pressure arrives from the west. This potent system will move across
the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region Monday night
with impacts continuing through the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds back overhead tonight leading to a dry
conditions and calm winds overnight. Can't rule out some patchy fog
early Monday morning before dissipating shortly after daybreak.
Otherwise, expect for quiet conditions through Monday evening as the
surface high gradually moves east towards the Mid-Atlantic region
while a surface low approaches from the west. This large low
pressure system will move from the Central Plains into the Great
Lakes region beginning Monday night. The first wave of upper level
energy associated with the surface low will move over the local area
Monday night allowing for rain showers to approach from the west.
It will remain cooler tonight with overnight lows in the upper 20s.
Highs on Monday will warm into the lower 50s with overnight lows
settling in the mid 30s to low 40s on Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The weather through the short term will be driven by the
aforementioned surface low and its associated shortwaves aloft. The
bulk of the rain with the first piece of energy will fall on Tuesday
as the surface low continues to push north into the Great Lakes
region. Overall rainfall amounts remain unchanged with rain totals
through Tuesday evening of 0.25-0.50 inches. High temperatures will
remain in the 50s areawide on Tuesday. We'll likely see a lull in
precipitation Tuesday night as the shortwave exits to the east but
will keep some lower PoPs in the forecast to account for any
isolated to scattered showers. Overnight lows will settle in the
40s.
By Wednesday the surface low will drag a cold front east across the
eastern Great Lakes region ushering in a much cooler weather
pattern. Fairly good model agreement in the cold front crossing
during daylight hours on Wednesday which will bring another surge of
rainfall across the area. High temperatures are expected to rise to
the upper 40s to low 50s ahead of the cold front before rapidly
dropping below freezing Wednesday evening behind the cold front.
This will allow for rain showers to quickly transition to snow
showers Wednesday evening. Additionally, westerly winds and gusts
will also increase along and behind the cold front. Current NBM
probabilities of wind gusts greater than 35 MPH peak between 60-80%
along the I-75 corridor Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Low
temperatures Wednesday night drop into the mid 20s behind the cold
front.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By the long term period the forecast turns its focus on lake
effect snow impacting the traditional Snowbelt of Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania. Medium to long range deterministic
models are continuing to align and show 850mb temperatures
plummeting to -12C with some uncertainty remaining on mean
layer flow. With this forecast package long range guidance
continues to show an initial period of southwesterly to west-
southwesterly flow Wednesday night into Thursday shifting
northwesterly by Friday. Subtle differences in the final
placement of the upper level low will ultimately determine the
final placement of lake effect snow bands over Northeast
Ohio/Northwest PA and/or western New York. For now, there is
enough confidence to continue with PoPs of 60-80% in the
forecast Thursday into Friday. Will continue to monitor the
evolution of the low pressure system and lake effect snow
potential during this timeframe given the heightened impact on
holiday travel. Lake effect snow will exit the region on
Saturday as an upper level ridge builds overhead from the west.
There will be a brief dry window before another system
approaches on Saturday evening.
Much colder through the long term with highs in the low to mid 30s
and overnight lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. Temperatures may
warm into the lower 40s on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Lingering MVFR at KERI will dissipate within the next hour or
two as drier air works into the region associated with building
high pressure. This will leave VFR in place at all terminals
through Monday, with just occasional cirrus as the high drifts
toward the Mid Atlantic coast setting up return flow and warm
air advection.
W to WNW winds will continue to gust to 15-25 knots at times
this afternoon, with the strongest gusts occurring at KERI.
Winds will quickly diminish this evening and become light and
variable tonight before turning solidly S at 5-10 knots Monday.
Outlook...Non-VFR chances return Monday night through
Wednesday in rain showers. Non VFR continues with chances for
snow in the snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW PA Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Today, a low pressure system over southern Ontario will move a
cold front east across Lake Erie with winds increasing to 20-25
knots from the northwest by mid-morning. This onshore flow will
build waves to 4-6 feet across the central and eastern basin
through late this evening. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through midnight tonight. Behind the departing
front late tonight, high pressure will build over the region
and result in varying winds of 5-15 knots through Monday. The
active pattern will continue on Tuesday as a weak warm front
will move north across Lake Erie and increase south-southeast
winds to 10-15 knots before a strong cold front moves east on
Wednesday. Along and behind this cold front, west-southwest
winds will ramp up to 25-30 knots, possibly approaching gale
force by Wednesday night. Confidence in reaching gales is low so
continue to cap max winds on the lake at 33 knots, but this
could increase. These strong winds will persist through Thursday
before northwest winds of 20-25 knots are expected as a surface
trough linger through Friday. This entire period from Wednesday
through Friday will need a marine headline of some kind as
hazardous conditions are expected. Conditions calm across the
lake on Saturday as another high pressure builds east.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...04
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 23, 1:58 PM EST---------------
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