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353 FXUS64 KLIX 100458AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1058 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025- An Arctic front will bring temperatures to near or below freezing on Tuesday morning across much of the area. A Freeze Watch has been issued for all of the outlook area with the exception of the immediate southshore of Lake Pontchartrain and the immediate SELA coast. Now is a good time to start winterizing your outdoor areas such as covering pipes and being prepared to cover plants. - Higher winds (20-35kt) and seas (7-14ft) hazardous to small crafts will occur this afternoon through Monday evening. Frequent wind gusts to gale-force are expected through this morning. - A combination of gusty winds up to 20-25mph and RH between 25-30 percent will lead to a critical fire weather risk on Monday. Outdoor burning is NOT recommended on Monday and please be mindful of any burn bans that may go into effect.&&.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025The cold front that has been well advertised has fully pushedthrough the area as of this evening. Winds will remain elevatedthroughout the night and during the day today with frequent gustsup to 25 mph. Strong cold air advection will be continuing thismorning, so portions of southwest Mississippi will likely see avery brief window of freezing temps right at sunrise. The cold airadvection will also look to keep highs from getting out of the lowto mid 50s. Temps were also still nudged down from deterministicNBM to account for this. These high winds, combined with very lowRH values of 20-30 percent will lead to critical fire weatherconditions during the day today. To read a more in depthdiscussion on the fire weather danger today, read the FIRE WEATHERsection at the bottom. As we get into Monday night and Tuesday morning, ridging movingsouthward across the southern plains on the backside of the upper-level trough will form a surface high pressure right over our area. This will promote efficient radiative cooling Tuesdaymorning on top of the Arctic air that has been advecting over thearea. This will lead to widespread freeze conditions for areasalong and north of the I-10/12 corridor as well as the riverParishes. Some locations (mainly the river basins) could brieflysee "hard freeze" conditions Tuesday morning. This comes after the50th percentile was blended in to the lows Tuesday morning toaccount for the radiative cooling mentioned before since thedeterministic NBM is still just under the 75th percentile. Themain wrench that could cause lows to not get down so low is someweak warm air advection, but that seems very minimal at this time. RH values will still be around critical thresholds (25-30percent) during the afternoon on Tuesday, but with the highpressure centered over the area, winds will be drastically lowerthan Monday.&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025The aforementioned surface high will continue to slide eastwardacross the north Gulf on Wednesday in association with anamplifying ridge over the central Rockies and provide warm and moist air to advect back into the area. This will lead to quitepleasant conditions Wednesday through Friday with highs in the lowto upper 70s across the area. There is a signal in the long-range guidance that a more activepattern starts to take over across the central CONUS. However, long range ensemble clustering still shows that there are significant differences in timing and evolution of the troughs that will come across the country next weekend. So, at this time, this is just something to monitor for any changes as we get closer into the weekend. For what its worth, some of the machine- learning guidance is hinting at an elevated severe weather risk this weekend, but remaining mostly north of here. Again, there is too much ensemble difference to say any more than that at this point, so this will be something to keep an eye on as we get laterin the week.&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for this forecastperiod as cold and dry air continues to filter into the area. Mainimpact for this cycle is gusty northwesterly winds up to 20-25 knots, primarily in the late morning and afternoon timeframe.These winds will remain elevated until they abruptly calm downafter 06z tomorrow as a surface high filters into the area.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025A strong cold front has pushed through the coastal waters with strong northerly winds behind it. Strong cold air advection overnight and much warmer water compared to the air above it tonight will lead to efficient mixing and winds gusting to Gales early this morning. The strong northerly winds will also lead to seas of 9-12 feet over the open waters. Due to the persistence of these frequent wind gusts there continues to be a Gale Warning for the western 2 thirds of our open Gulf waters. The winds will relax some after sunrise over all of the waters. Latest guidance has backed down on winds right above the surface, so confidence on downgrading the Gale Watch east of the river to a SCY got higher. Winds should be 20-27 knots over the open waters and gusting to 30kt. After Monday, high pressure filters across the waters and winds relax dramatically during the day Tuesday and benign conditions takeover thereafter.&&.FIRE WEATHER...Issued at 614 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025A cold front has moved through the area with very dry air now inplace. Northerly winds have already increased behind the front andwill remain elevated through Monday, with gusts up to 30 mph attimes. These winds combined with very low RH values, falling tonear or below 25 percent, will result in critical fire weatherconditions across all of southeast Louisiana and southernMississippi on Monday.A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Monday forthe entire area due to the previously mentioned combination ofstrong northerly winds and critically low humidity. Any fires thatdevelop will have the potential to spread rapidly. Outdoor burningis strongly discouraged.Winds will gradually diminish late Monday into Tuesday as asurface high builds over the area. However, the very dry air masswill linger, keeping minimum RH values very low, generally below30 percent, Tuesday afternoon. Conditions should improve bymidweek as winds decrease further and moisture begins to return.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 65 32 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 69 35 52 29 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 72 34 53 26 / 20 0 0 0 MSY 73 42 55 39 / 20 0 0 0 GPT 72 37 53 30 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 74 34 53 25 / 10 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065-071-076-079>086-088>090.GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-550-552-555-570- 572-575. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ530-550-552-555-570-572-575. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ532- 534-536-538-557-577.MS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MSZ068>071- 077-080>082. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ550-552-555-570-572- 575. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ534- 536-538-557-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...JZLONG TERM....JZAVIATION...JZMARINE...JZFIRE WEATHER...JZ
