MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 1, 7:24 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...745
FXUS64 KMOB 011225
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
724 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours.
Some brief and localized MVFR/IFR conditions will occur near the
showers during the day today. Light and variable winds overnight
will become light northwesterly. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area
through Monday. This will maintain a generally northerly flow
pattern aloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around
this ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will
continue to result in scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A weak frontal boundary will sink toward the coast
this afternoon resulting in the highest rain chances near the
coast. Drier conditions are expected across inland areas today. A
heat advisory remains in effect today for heat index values around
110. The frontal boundary lifts back north on Tuesday returning
higher rain chances to inland areas. Highs on Tuesday will range
from the low 90s east of I-65 to mid and upper 90s west of I-65.
Another heat advisory may be required for western areas on
Tuesday. /13
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
The overall weather pattern remains rather persistent through the
entire extended term period. Looking aloft, an expansive upper
ridge centered over the Tennessee River Valley at the start of the
period will gradually shift east through the week, reaching the
western Atlantic by Sunday. At the surface, with the lack of any
notable surface features entering or affecting our area, it is
safe to assume that the typical summertime land/seabreeze
circulation will likely be the driving force each day. This will
help to initiate isolated to scattered showers and storms each
morning along our coastal counties and our local marine zones. As
the seabreeze marches inland during the afternoon, scattered
pulse-type thunderstorms can be expected each day (PoPs generally
around 30 to 50 percent). As is the case with this typical
summertime convection, although severe storms are generally not
expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will
be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to
develop. Otherwise, it will be hot thanks to the close proximity
of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the low 90s along the
coast and the mid 90s inland (localized interior areas could even
reach the upper 90s). With dew points likely to remain in the mid
to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 105 to
112 degree range each day prior to the onset of thunderstorms.
Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of heat advisories
across much of the area. Lows will not provide much relief,
further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area...
temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper
70s, with low 80s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents will
be in place for Wednesday and the 4th of July holiday, however,
as the previous shift mentioned, the rip current risk looks to
increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend.
This will likely be a result of long period swell reaching our
local beaches in association with Beryl as it enters the Bay of
Campeche by the weekend. We will monitor this potential, as well
as possible increases in surf and wave run-up issues, over the
coming days. /96
MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 97 77 93 77 92 76 93 76 / 30 20 60 30 50 10 40 0
Pensacola 96 79 89 79 90 78 92 79 / 50 30 60 30 50 10 40 10
Destin 93 80 89 80 90 80 91 81 / 60 40 70 20 50 20 30 10
Evergreen 97 74 92 75 94 74 95 75 / 20 10 60 20 60 10 50 10
Waynesboro 96 71 97 75 94 74 96 75 / 10 0 40 10 60 10 30 0
Camden 95 72 92 75 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 50 10 50 10 40 10
Crestview 97 76 92 75 94 74 96 75 / 50 30 60 20 60 10 50 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052>060-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 1, 7:24 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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