MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 11:28 AM CST ...New AVIATION...968
FXUS64 KMOB 061728
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1128 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025
- A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon through Friday evening, mainly over interior
portions of southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi.
- A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most of
the marine area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the
potential for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf
waters.
- The first freeze of the season is becoming increasingly
probable for most of the forecast area excluding the immediate
coast Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall into the
mid 20's to lower 30's.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
An upper trof evolves over the northern Plains on Thursday, then
progresses into the eastern states through Friday, meanwhile
becoming embedded in a much larger, broad upper trof pattern which
develops over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. An associated
surface low passes well off to the north and is anticipated to
bring a weakening cold front to near the lower Mississippi River
valley near 00Z Saturday and stalls soon after. A series of
shortwaves progressing across the forecast area along with
sufficient instability and shear continues to indicate the
potential for some strong or severe storms Friday afternoon into
the evening hours just west of I-65. SPC currently has a marginal
risk of severe storms for this portion.
The large and broad upper trof pattern undergoes a dramatic
transformation into a deep amplified upper trof over the eastern
CONUS by Sunday night, and in the process brings a strong cold
front through the forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. The coldest air of the season (so far) flows into the
area in the wake of a cold front, with lows Sunday night mostly
ranging from the mid 30s to around 40 at the coast, then lows
Monday night range from the mid 20s inland to the mid 30s at the
coast. This will likely necessitate a freeze warning for all but
the immediate coastal areas for Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Will also need to monitor for the potential of a freeze warning
over the northernmost portion of the area Sunday night where some
locations may dip into the lower 30s.
Ahead of the strong cold front, highs on Thursday and Friday tend
to range from 75 to 80, then highs on Saturday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night range from the lower
50s inland to the lower 60s near the coast then Friday night will
see lows ranging from the lower 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s at
the coast. Lows Saturday night range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Highs on Sunday range from the mid 60s to around 70 along and
west of I-65, with lower to mid 70s further to the east. Monday
will see highs just in the lower to mid 50s, then highs moderate
to the lower to mid 70s by Thursday. Lows Tuesday night range from
the mid 30s inland to the mid 40s at the coast, then Wednesday
night will have lows ranging from the lower 40s inland to the
lower 50s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected
through Monday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025
Winds to become light from the southeast through the remainder of
the afternoon with the expectation that fair weather cu will
develop. Bases generally 3 to 6 kft. The weather pattern going
into tonight favors the development of late night fog and lowering
cigs. There is a signal that some of the fog could reduce
restrictions to vsby to LIFR, perhaps VLIFR categories primarily
after 07.08Z thru perhaps to 07.13Z mainly over MOB/BFM
terminals. The signal is not as strong for JKA/PNS terminals and
will monitor newer data for updates. Vsby to improve after 07.13Z.
Isolated to scattered -shra/perhaps a few tsra possible mainly
after 07.15Z generally over the western half of the local area.
/10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Light northeasterly winds become southeasterly on Thursday, then
become southerly on Friday. A westerly to southwesterly flow on
Saturday switches to a moderate to strong northwesterly flow on
Sunday in the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely become necessary for most of the entire marine area from
Sunday afternoon into Monday night. Gusts to gale force are
possible over the open Gulf waters Sunday night into Monday
morning, and will need to monitor for the potential of a Gale
Watch/Warning. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 61 78 64 80 / 10 50 20 10
Pensacola 65 78 68 80 / 0 30 30 10
Destin 65 77 68 79 / 0 20 40 20
Evergreen 55 78 61 82 / 0 50 40 10
Waynesboro 56 77 61 80 / 10 50 20 10
Camden 54 76 61 80 / 0 50 40 10
Crestview 54 79 63 82 / 0 20 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 11:28 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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