IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:55 AM EST240
FXUS63 KIWX 060855
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
355 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures expected into Friday. A period of rain
showers is expected late tonight into Friday.
- More widespread showers are expected Saturday afternoon into
Sunday morning, possibly mixing with a few snow flakes before
ending.
- Sharply colder air arrives by Sunday night and lingers into
early Tuesday. Lake effect snow showers possible Sunday night
into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
The train of upper level systems remains active through the next
several days. The area is presently under the control of weak
ridging that will allow for dry conditions through at least this
evening, before the next wave quickly arrives late tonight into
Friday. CAMs all seem to be in decent agreement on a zone of
increased convergence and a bit of an uptick in low level
moisture ahead of the system to bring a roughly 2 to 4 hour
period of showers starting late tonight (9Z or so in the NW) and
then progressing rapidly east and clearing the area by 18Z.
Overall QPF amounts still not overly impressive, but most
locations should see a tenth or 2 before it departs. Winds will
begin to increase again this evening into the overnight hours
(although not as strong as the past system). The late passage of
the front will allow temperatures Friday to still reach the low
to mid 60s.
Saturday will be the calm before the storm with more seasonable
temperatures in the 50s and dry conditions. This will quickly
change as a shortwave rapidly translates from the Pacific NW now
into western IL by 00Z Sun. Strong jet dynamics will induce a
sfc low that will track quickly across the forecast area Sat
night into early Sunday bringing a round of showers with it. As
this passes through, a deep 510 dm or so upper low over James
Bay will send an even stronger trough quickly south, accompanied
by the coldest air so far this fall. As the cold air begins to
arrive, a rain/snow mix is possible late Sat night into Sunday
morning as 850 mb temps drop below zero and 1000-850 mb
thickness values approach 1300 m in the far NW towards 12Z Sun
and then progress SE from there. Sfc wet-bulb temps will likely
still be in the mid to upper 30s, preventing a full switch over
until later Sunday when the brunt of the cold air arrives. The
best chance for lake effect snow showers will come Sunday night
into Monday evening. Confidence does lower with regards to
exactly what locations will be impacted the most and if any wet
snow accumulations will occur. Outside of the snow showers,
highs will only be in the 30s with lows in the 20s. Once we get
into Tuesday and beyond, the pattern will calm down considerably
with temperatures slowly moderating through the remainder of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
The low levels continued to remain quite dry and void of low
clouds. Synoptic mixing is expected to cause wind gusts up to 20
knots at the surface at SBN after 00Z. In addition to the gusty
winds at the surface, low level wind shear is expected and has
been included in the SBN TAF after 00Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE... Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM
EST Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:55 AM EST---------------
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