IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:57 PM EST875
FXUS63 KIWX 051757
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1257 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy through the day with gusts of 30 to 35 mph.
- Normal to above normal temperatures into Friday, with a trend
towards sharply colder temperatures this weekend into early
next week.
- A period of rain showers is expected late Thursday night into
Friday. Additional rain chances exist late Saturday into
early Sunday, possibly mixing with a few snow flakes before
ending.
- Lake effect snow showers possible Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
Increasing WAA is already underway ahead of the first of a series of
progressively stronger upper level troughs, resulting in steady or
rising temperatures the remainder of the night, eventually topping
out in the upper 50s to mid 60s by early afternoon. A tightening sfc
gradient will take place in association with a fast moving area of
low pressure tracking from western WI at 6Z to Lk Ontario by 21Z.
Winds will increase somewhat prior to sunrise with a few gusts of 20
to maybe 25 mph. As the low passes and modest CAA commences,
somewhat better mixing of low level wind fields will occur with more
widespread gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range (locally higher) late
morning through late afternoon before quickly diminishing shortly
after sunset. Any limited precip chances will remain well north of
the forecast area with this system.
The next trough will quickly approach the region late Thursday night
into Friday, bringing another quick shot of slightly warmer air,
increasing winds and a much better shot at showers for the area.
Overall rainfall amounts will be limited the lack of influx of
deeper gulf moisture, but should still give a few tenths to many
areas. Overall instability not impressive by any means with best mid
level lapse rates lagging and little/no sfc based CAPE. For
consistency sake will leave the slgt chc of thunder mention in.
Moisture will quickly cut off behind the cold front, which exits by
18Z Friday. CAA will quickly commence behind the front, with models
varying on the degree of cold air. A minimal lake response may
occur, but with a dry post frontal airmass in place, little more
than slgt chc to chc pops warranted Friday night into early
Saturday.
While many details remain to be sorted out, at least some increased
confidence exists regarding a fast moving, clipper moving from
western ND 6Z Sat to western IL at 00Z Sun as well as a strong wave
break off a deep upper low over James Bay and rapidly dive south. A
period of synoptic precip is possible with the sfc low followed by a
robust lake response as the coldest air so far this fall arrives and
overspreads a warm Lk MI (water temps in the lower teens C).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
Surface cold front is pushing across northern Indiana this
afternoon. Wind gusts have briefly exceeded 30 knots with fropa,
with fairly strong pressure rises building in behind the front
aiding in these gusts. In addition, low level RH increase in
vicinity of the frontal zone has led to pockets of MVFR cigs.
These lower cigs are influencing KSBN, but still some low to
medium confidence in KFWA cigs with potential low clouds stay
above 3k feet. After 20 or 21Z, these low clouds should
diminish as low level dry air advection becomes more pronounced.
Wind gusts will diminish rapidly toward the 23Z timeframe, with
light and variable winds developing overnight into early
Thursday morning as sfc ridge axis approaches. Southerly return
flow will develop again for Thursday with some return mid level
clouds possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
Fire weather concerns do linger for the next couple of days prior to
the large scale shift in the pattern. For today, warmer temperatures
and higher dewpoints should keep RH values 45% or higher. Winds will
be a larger concern compared to yesterday, still resulting in a bit
of an elevated concern for any burning of leaves or other items. By
Thursday, winds will have diminished, but dewpoints will mix out
with min RH values of 30 to 40%, possibly lower in some areas. Will
hold off on any SPS issuance for now.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili
FIRE WEATHER...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:57 PM EST---------------
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