CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 12:52 PM EST339
FXUS61 KCLE 061752
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1252 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings rain Friday, again late Friday night into
early Saturday, and then a strong low pressure system moves
through Sunday. Off and on precipitation expected through the
period, including some snow potential early next week from
lake effect.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure dominant today with a progressive synoptic scale
pattern and the system moving to the mid Atlantic coastal region
tonight. Meanwhile, elevated warm front seen in a temperature
gradient at 850mb will bring milder conditions into the CWA Friday.
Cold front not far behind with a line of showers through the region
in strong low level f-gen forcing. SPC giving general thunder for
now, and some limited instability later in the evening, but leaving
thunder out of the wording for this forecast, but noting this might
change. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s today become 50s and 60s
Friday with rain moving through.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Secondary Friday night/Saturday morning cold front, less
precipitation than the first from the near term forecast period.
Upper level closed low will anchor itself over southern Hudson
Bay/James Bay, marking the beginning of significant troughing over
the eastern third of the CONUS. A lobe will break off the Hudson bay
closed and low and drop southward into the Great Lakes by Sunday
while an open wave over the Mississippi Valley tracks eastward with
a developing surface low. This low will head into northern Ohio
Sunday, strengthening the entire time, and increasing the cold air
advection in its wake, setting the stage for some early season
winter type weather for the long term forecast period. More rain
returns Saturday night into Sunday, and there will be modest
temperature decreased from Saturday into Sunday as the colder
airmass will not infiltrate the CWA until Sunday night and beyond.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The bulk of the attention in the forecast turns to the wake of
the deepening surface low that will track from northern Ohio
to the New England coast. 850mb temps drop to the -9C to -11C
range and the upper low continues to deepen as well as it moves
east of the region. Surface/low level winds become north
northwesterly Sunday night and Monday, and with a now
significant temperature difference between Lake Erie surface
water temperatures and the aforementioned cold 850mb air, should
get plenty of instability/convection to form lake effect
precipitation for the region. For our area, a late rain/snow mix
Sunday evening becomes all snow showers Sunday night into
Monday and Monday night. This will be the time frame for the
bulk of the snow which is likely going to accumulate in the
preferred north northwesterly flow regions of NE OH/NW PA, and
confined further east late Monday night into Tuesday when flow
turns westerly. For the first snow of the season, should have
some impacts given the first snow to stick to the surfaces,
although it could take a while for that to happen given the warm
grounds temperatures. Will get into the specifics of who should
get the most snow out of this as the event nears, and the exact
wind directions can be pinned down, along with the duration
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure will produce VFR conditions across the area
through tonight before a cold front pushes showers and MVFR
ceilings/visibilites east across the region Friday morning
through Friday afternoon. Showers will likely enter the vicinity
of KTOL by 12Z Friday and reach as far east as KCLE/KCAK at the
end of the TAF period. Showers may not reach KERI/KYNG by 18Z,
but have included PROB30 groups since a few high res guidance
members indicate showers being a couple of hours faster than
currently forecast.
Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 5 to 10 knots through
early this evening before shifting to the south and becoming
more light after 00Z tonight. Winds will ramp up late tonight
through the end of the TAF period with sustained southerly winds
to 15 to 20 knots and gusts to 25 to 30 knots expected after
sunrise Friday. LLWS is likely west of KERI primarily during
the predawn hours Friday morning thanks to a LLJ developing
before diurnal mixing kicks in after 12Z.
Outlook...Low pressure tracking through the southern Great Lakes
may bring non-VFR in rain showers Saturday night into Sunday.
Gusty winds and cold air flow in behind the low late Sunday and
Monday. Non-VFR is possible in scattered snow showers areawide
Sunday night and Monday. Non-VFR and accumulating lake effect
snow are likely in the snowbelt of Northeast OH and Northwest
PA.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds will diminish through this morning and then
shift southwesterly this afternoon as high pressure quickly
slides east across the Ohio Valley. Lingering rough conditions
across the central and eastern basin are improving and remaining
Small Craft Advisories east of Avon Point expire by 1 PM today.
The next low in the lower 990mb range will track across the
upper Great Lakes on Friday, pushing a cold front southeast
across Lake Erie Friday afternoon and evening. South-southwest
winds pick up late tonight into Friday and peak at 20-30 knots
ahead of the front, shifting more west by late Friday afternoon
and then northwest into Friday night while beginning to
decrease. We will need another round of Small Craft Advisories
for the nearshore waters beginning pre-dawn Friday out west and
expiring by late Saturday morning out east. Fairly high
confidence we will remain below gales with this system, with
water levels dipping on the west end Friday morning and early
afternoon but likely staying above the critical mark for safe
navigation per deterministic and machine learning guidance.
There will be another brief lull Saturday as northwest winds
shift northeast through the day. Speeds should be under 15kt
Saturday into the start of Saturday night. Winds pick up out of
the east ahead of approaching low pressure Saturday night and
then whip around to the north-northwest Sunday into Sunday
night as the low tracks near or a bit north of Lake Erie. The
coldest air of the season will flow in behind this system. Winds
of 20 to 30 knots are currently in the forecast Sunday into
Sunday night. Winds remain northwest on Monday and gradually
shift more westerly through Tuesday. Winds will fluctuate,
currently forecast to bounce between 15 and 30kt across the
lake through at least Tuesday. Brief periods of stronger winds
that may approach or marginally reach gale-force are possible
between Sunday and at least Tuesday, though confidence on gales
occurring is lower. Either way, a prolonged period of rough
conditions with some form of headlines is expected.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 12:52 PM EST---------------
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