IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 12:00 PM EST488
FXUS63 KIWX 021700
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1200 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is possible this morning, especially north of US-24.
- Mainly dry conditions will persist through Thursday. The next
chance of widespread rain is not until Friday.
- Temperatures this week will remain generally above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Patchy fog is the main concern this morning with mostly clear skies
and very light winds. Moisture profiles are not supportive of a
widespread, dense fog but patchy fog that may be dense in a few
spots will be possible through the early morning, particularly in
our northern half. No plans for a dense fog advisory but will
monitor observations closely through the morning. Ground/road temps
remain warm but with air temps of 30-32 any areas of dense fog could
lead to a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses.
Lake-enhanced rain showers will also continue to swirl over southern
Lake MI through the early morning given convergent flow amid modest
(but deep) lake-induced instability. These showers will mostly stay
offshore but could briefly clip our lakeshore counties at times
through 15Z. By late morning, pesky upper low will finally move
southeast with a shortwave ridge building over Lake MI. This will
cause inversion heights to crash and low level flow to back SW,
quickly cutting off any remaining lake-induced showers. Expect
mostly sunny skies everywhere by the afternoon with some minor WAA
pushing highs into the mid 50s after a chilly start this morning.
Next midlevel trough swings through the Northern Great Lakes late
tonight/early Mon. Latest models (including hi-res) are continuing
earlier noted trend toward a dry forecast in our area given
northward displacement of CVA forcing and virtually no appreciable
prefrontal moisture return. Kept just a small sliver of slight
chance PoP's in our far NW areas. Steady SW winds will keep
overnight lows tonight in the mid/upper 30s and highs Mon actually
make a run at 60F given decent mixing and a lack of any appreciable
postfrontal CAA Mon afternoon. Lows Mon night do return to the
low/mid 30s though given light winds and mostly clear skies (at
least early).
The atmosphere continues quite dry below the subcloud layer.
Scattered clouds in the 060-100 layer will continue across
northern Indiana, but the clouds should not be operationally
significant. VFR conditions will prevail.
A nearly identical setup is expected on Wed as another weak trough
zips to our N/NE. Maintained NBM slight chance PoP's in the far
north but suspect everyone will end up dry. Next decent chance of
rain is not until Fri when a stronger trough takes a more southern
route through our area. Confidence is still on the low side this far
out but if current projections hold, it looks like a widespread 0.1-
0.4 inches of rain (better than nothing). Forecast confidence really
drops for next weekend though as models diverge sharply on evolving
longwave pattern. Temps through late week remain generally on the
warm side of climo.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Quiet, dry weather continues today with VFR ceilings expected
throughout the TAF period. With a tightening pressure gradient
across Upper Great Lakes and an area of low pressure passing by
to the north, winds are expected to increase. Southwest winds
will steadily strengthen overnight ahead of a cold frontal
passage on Monday. Winds should be sustained around 15 kts by
late Monday morning with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts. Breezy
conditions last until around 00Z Tuesday before winds gradually
relax.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 12:00 PM EST---------------
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