LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:11 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...017
FXUS63 KLMK 051711
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1211 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Today, breezy and warm conditions are expected with gusts
reaching 30-35 mph.
* The next chance of rain will come Friday as a cold front brings
showers and possibly a few strong thunderstorms to the area.
* Another cold front late this weekend could bring highs in the
30s and 40s early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
Zonal upper flow remains overhead with surface high pressure
centered off the coast of the Carolinas. To the north, a surface low
begins the day centered over the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, and as
a trailing cold front from the Michigan low gets pulling towards the
Lower Ohio Valley, the increasing pressure gradient will cause
southwest winds to get gusty over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Some of these gusts could reach around 30-35 mph. Under
filtered sunshine, this is expected to lift high temperatures into
the mid 60s to low 70s. The lower temperatures are expected across
the Bluegrass with the higher temperatures expected across the south
and western side of the CWA.
Tonight, winds start off from the west, but the cold front quickly
moves southeast over the CWA. This will veer 5-10 mph winds with
gusts around 15 mph towards the north, ushering in cooler
temperatures under mostly clear skies. Lows should reach down into
the mid 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
Thursday, upper ridging makes its way into the Ohio Valley. CAA
ahead of high pressure behind the cold front limits high
temperatures to the upper 50s to mid 60s across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. The cooler temperatures will be to the north and
warmer to the south. As the surface high passes east through central
Indiana, our winds continue veering all the way to the south by
Thursday night.
Friday, zonal flow begins to see amplification in the upper trough
as a surface low, just north of the Great Lakes, drags a trailing
cold front through the Ohio Valley. Models are now showing better
agreement on the timing. After looking at several models,
instability looks weaker than yesterday's guidance. Deep layer shear
is still expected, but it's mostly unidirectional speed shear with
limited directional shear. Still looks mostly like a shower event
with gusty winds. A few rumbles of thunder and limited organized
storms remain possible.
Saturday night into Sunday still appears to bring a much more
amplified trough and strong cold front to the region. Currently
precipitation chances look limited with the better chances for
precipitation remaining along the northern half of the CWA. CAA
behind the front will likely drop highs into the upper 30s to low
40s for Monday and into the 20s Monday night, but this will be short-
lived as return flow early Tuesday brings warming temperatures
daily through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
A "dry" cold front will pass through later this evening, and we'll
continue to see gusty SW winds, gradually veering to W, and then NW
this evening as it passes. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph will continue
through this afternoon, but gradually weakening by late afternoon.
Winds veer around to the north, and then NE through the night behind
the front with mostly clear skies. Steady E winds settle in for
tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:11 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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