CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 7:22 PM EST038
FXUS61 KCLE 050022
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
722 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast through the area late tonight
into Wednesday, followed by a strong cold front Wednesday
evening and overnight. High pressure will briefly build across
the area on Thursday, followed by another low pressure system
and cold front on Friday. A stronger system will arrive towards
the end of the weekend, ushering in the coldest air of the
season so far by early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the near term period will be the potential for
strong wind gusts along and behind a cold front Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
In this forecast package, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
primarily the lakeshore areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania as west to northwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph
are expected behind a cold front late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. There is a lower potential (evident by the SPC SWODY2
marginal risk) for stronger wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph in
convective- like showers along the cold front Wednesday
afternoon. Area soundings indicate the potential for a few low-
topped rain showers to tap into 50 to 55 knot winds at the 850
mb level with EL's reaching near 700 mb in the presence of
surface CAPE around 100 J/kg, particularly between 4 and 7 PM
across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Ahead of the cold front Wednesday morning, a modest southwest
LLJ of 35 to 40 knots will result in southwest wind gusts of 35
to 40 mph across much of the area. A few isolated wind gusts up
to 45 mph cannot be ruled out, though the potential is low.
Apart from the wind gusts Wednesday morning, precipitation
chances will remain limited until the arrival of the cold front
in the afternoon and evening, mainly across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Highs will be above average on Wednesday
ahead of the front in the low to mid-60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Apart from brief high pressure on Thursday, the active pattern
will continue across the region as another system moves east
through the Great Lakes on Friday. This will be a wet and windy
system, bringing another round of gusty southwest winds of 30
to 35 mph, in addition to widespread rain of around a half inch.
A few thunderstorms may accompany the rain Friday afternoon,
particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor. Mild daytime
temperatures in the 50s are expected for the short term period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main concern for the long term period will be Sunday into
Monday as the phasing of two upper-level systems brings the
coldest air so far this season into the region, including the
potential for measurable snow in some areas.
A low pressure system will first move east through the Lower
Great Lakes late Saturday night into Sunday, bringing widespread
rain across the area on Sunday. This piece of upper-level jet
energy is then expected to phase with a closed upper-level low
across the lower Hudson Bay, ushering in Canadian arctic air
south into the Great Lakes and Midwest. Rain will transition to
snow Sunday night into Monday, with snow becoming the prevailing
weather type through Tuesday.
A mix of lake-enhanced and lake-effect snow will impact areas
downwind of Lake Erie Monday into Tuesday as 850 mb temperatures
plummet to around -10 degrees C in addition to multiple
shortwaves traversing along the upper trough axis. It does
appear that accumulating snow is possible, particularly across
the higher terrain of the snowbelt, though confidence on
specific amounts and location remains low at this time. In
addition, the arctic air mass will usher in cold wind chills in
the teens Sunday night and Monday night and only a few degrees
off of record lows in Northwest Ohio Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mid-level clouds encompass much of the area, though should
gradually depart to the east through tonight. In its a wake, a
strong southwesterly low-level jet of 40 to 50 knots will build
in between 06-10Z from west to east, and then dissipate sharply
at 14Z. LLWS was maintained for nearly the entire area tonight
through Wednesday morning.
After 14Z and through the day Wednesday, strong southwest winds
are expected, with frequent gusts in the 30-35 knot range
expected. Isolated gusts as high as 40 knots will be possible
especially near the Lake Erie shoreline.
A strong cold front will move southward across the area
Wednesday afternoon between 19-22Z. This will result in a 2-4
hour period of rain showers, especially east of a Lorain-
Mansfield line. These showers could produce brief IFR ceilings
and a few stronger wind gusts exceeding 40 knots, especially in
far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. MVFR ceilings
are likely for at least a few hours in this same area as well.
Outlook...Non-VFR and breezy conditions are expected with
widespread rain on Friday with lake effect rain persisting
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Friday night
into Saturday. Non-VFR will be possible with scattered rain
showers on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
While the lake is on the northern periphery of high pressure
over the Ohio Valley, strong west winds continue on Lake Erie
with 15 to 25 kts and waves over 4 ft for the eastern half of
the lake. Will continue to have the Small Craft Advisories for
these areas through this evening. A low pressure system will
move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday extending a cold front
across the lake. Winds will rapidly pick up after a brief lull
this morning. Expecting strong southwest winds to 40 kts for
the eastern half of the lake with values to 30 kts over the
western half. With the frontal passage, winds will shift to the
west then northwest and remain elevated through early Thursday
morning. Have upgraded to a Gale Warning with the package for
the eastern half of the lake and a Small Craft Advisory for the
western half. The Gale Warning will need to be replaced with a
Small Craft Advisory through at least late Thursday morning. Did
evaluate Low Water Advisory thresholds for the western basin but
winds may shift westerly enough where water levels should stay
above the critical mark. It will be close and this will need to
be monitored.
High pressure will enter the region for Thursday and will offer
another lull in winds and diminished waves for about 18-24
hours. A strong low pressure system will move through the
northern Lakes on Friday, extending a cold front across the
lake. Strong southerly winds will be expected ahead of the
front, shifting to the southwest then northwest with the frontal
passage. There will be the need for more marine headlines on
Friday, but the trend is toward Small Craft Advisory levels. There
will be another lull in marine weather on Saturday between
systems. Another low will sweep through on Sunday and offer
another chance for marine headlines with elevated winds.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for OHZ010>012-
089.
PA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
LEZ142>144.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149-
165>169.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ146-
147.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ148-
149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 7:22 PM EST---------------
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