LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 6:26 AM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...677
FXUS64 KLIX 281126 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
...NEW AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
- Areas of fog are expected again tonight into Tuesday morning,
with locally dense fog possible. Those with travel plans during
the early morning hours should be prepared for sudden changes
in visibility. Allow extra commuting time.
- A cold frontal passage Tuesday night with showers and a few
thunderstorms and breezy to windy conditions. Much cooler air
behind the front Tuesday night through the end of the week.
- Hazardous marine conditions to return beginning late Tuesday
night. A Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
The morning will start off foggy, especially for areas north and
west of Lake Pontchartrain, as clear skies and light winds allow
temperatures to cool quickly. A fairly strong surface based
temperature inversion will form that will decouple the boundary
layer and promote fog and low stratus development over our inland
areas. The fog will quickly burn off by mid-morning as
temperatures warm into the 70s. Tonight, a potent northern stream
shortwave trough will slide through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. An attendant surface cold front will also move through
the area at the same time. A brief window of southwest flow off
the Gulf will allow for some low level moisture return to occur
late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. PWATS will rise to
between 1.3 and 1.5 inches, and this will be sufficient when
combined with the strong low level convergence along the front to
induce a line of showers. This line of showers will quickly pass
through the forecast area Tuesday night and PoP of 50 to 70
percent is in place across the region to reflect this light
rainfall risk. Once the front clears the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. a strong surge of dry air advection and
increasing subsidence aloft will quickly lower PWATS to around 0.3
inches. These very dry conditions will then persist into
Wednesday night. In addition to the dry air moving in, a much
colder airmass will slide into the area. Temperatures will cool a
good 10 degrees from Tuesday with highs only warming into the 60s
and lows dipping into the 40s and lower 50s. This will be the
first true taste of Fall weather we have seen this year.
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Throughout the long term period, the region will find itself
parked beneath a deep layer northwest flow regime. This
northwesterly flow pattern will allow for a continued cool and dry
pattern to linger through the end of the week. Highs will remain
below average in the 60s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows
will be coldest Thursday night into Friday morning when a few
spots north of I-10 could dip into the upper 30s. The Pearl and
Pascagoula River drainages are the most likely areas to see upper
30s occur. Some moderation in temperatures is expected over the
weekend, but the area will remain beneath a deep layer northwest
flow regime. Highs will warm into the lower 70s over the weekend
and lows will gradually rise from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
north of I-10 and the lower 50s to the mid 50s south of I-10.
Additionally, another fast moving northern stream shortwave
trough and a reinforcing front will slide through on Saturday.
This feature will be largely starved of moisture due to a lack of
return flow. At most, an increase in cloud development and maybe a
few sprinkles can be mustered along the convergence zone in
advance of the front. Heading into Monday, the dry conditions will
persist, but a continued warming trend will allow temperatures to
finally approach the average for this of year with highs warming
into the upper 70s and lows dipping into the 50s across the
forecast area. This warming trend is due to the eastern trough
beginning gradually weakening over the Lower Mississippi Valley
and an increase in ridging aloft in response.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Throughout the long term period, the region will find itself
parked beneath a deep layer northwest flow regime. This
northwesterly flow pattern will allow for a continued cool and dry
pattern to linger through the end of the week. Highs will remain
below average in the 60s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows
will be coldest Thursday night into Friday morning when a few
spots north of I-10 could dip into the upper 30s. The Pearl and
Pascagoula River drainages are the most likely areas to see upper
30s occur. Some moderation in temperatures is expected over the
weekend, but the area will remain beneath a deep layer northwest
flow regime. Highs will warm into the lower 70s over the weekend
and lows will gradually rise from the lower 40s to the upper 40s
north of I-10 and the lower 50s to the mid 50s south of I-10.
Additionally, another fast moving northern stream shortwave
trough and a reinforcing front will slide through on Saturday.
This feature will be largely starved of moisture due to a lack of
return flow. At most, an increase in cloud development and maybe a
few sprinkles can be mustered along the convergence zone in
advance of the front. Heading into Monday, the dry conditions will
persist, but a continued warming trend will allow temperatures to
finally approach the average for this of year with highs warming
into the upper 70s and lows dipping into the 50s across the
forecast area. This warming trend is due to the eastern trough
beginning gradually weakening over the Lower Mississippi Valley
and an increase in ridging aloft in response.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Terminals may start with some VIS/CIG reductions for this cycle,
however, there should be improvement during the day today. Winds
will transitions to a more southerly direction through today.
Changes come this evening and overnight as a cold front moves
through. Covered shower potential with PROBs as it looks like only
a thin line of showers will move through from northwest to
southeast along the front. CIGs and VIS may drop especially in
shower activity. Otherwise, winds shift to a northerly direction
and increase with some gusts exceeding 20 knots. LLWS around 40kt
will also be possible for MCB toward the end of the cycle. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
The first true cold front of the year will pass through the waters
Tuesday night. As a much colder airmass advects over the still
warm coastal waters, downward transport of stronger winds aloft
will lead to high end small craft advisory and most likely gale
conditions over the waters. These gale conditions will linger
through Thursday morning before gradually improving as a surface
high builds in from the west. Seas will respond to these strong
winds and increase to over 12 feet in the open Gulf waters.
Inexperienced boaters are encouraged to stay out of the waters
from Tuesday night through Thursday morning, and a Gale Watch is
in effect due to these anticipated conditions. This watch will
likely be upgraded to a warning during the day tomorrow.
Conditions are then expected to rapidly improve on Friday and
Saturday as the surface high parks directly over the waters. Winds
will fall below 10 knots and seas will drop to 1 to 2 feet by
Friday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 50 61 47 / 10 80 10 10
BTR 82 52 65 48 / 10 70 0 0
ASD 78 51 66 47 / 0 60 0 0
MSY 81 57 69 53 / 0 60 0 0
GPT 78 53 67 50 / 0 60 10 10
PQL 77 52 68 47 / 0 50 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for GMZ530-
532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for GMZ532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...PG
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 6:26 AM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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