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440 FXUS64 KLIX 271737AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Areas of fog are possible again tonight into tomorrow morning, with locally dense fog possible. Those with travel plans during the early morning hours should be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Allow extra commuting time. - A cold frontal passage Tuesday night with showers and a few thunderstorms and breezy to windy conditions. Much cooler air behind the front Tuesday night through the end of the week. - Hazardous marine conditions to return beginning late Tuesday night. A Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. &&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025Upper trough axis near the Mississippi-Alabama border this morning, with another trough moving from the northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Ridging building along the West Coast. At the surface, low pressure was south of Pensacola with a frontal boundary well offshore of southeast Louisiana. High pressure extended from Quebec into the Southern Plains. Low pressure over the Canadian Prairie Provinces had a frontal boundary to another low near the Black Hills of South Dakota. Locally, still some low clouds over southwest Mississippi, but they are showing some signs of breaking up. Those clouds have held temperatures at McComb in the 60s, but elsewhere, temperatures were mainly in the 70s, with dew points in the lower and mid 60s.Mostly sunny skies this afternoon, with the clouds over thenorthern part of the area expected to break up. Could seeredevelopment of fog around sunrise Tuesday, mainly across thenorthern half of the area, especially if winds go calm.Evening/mid shifts may need to consider a Fog Advisory ifconditions dictate. The upper trough in the local area this morning will move eastward to the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Wednesday. The northern Rockies trough will dive southeastward and be near Memphis at sunrise Wednesday. This will push a strong cold front through the area Tuesday night. Once the clouds over southwest Mississippi depart today, little in the way of weather impacts through the daytime hours Tuesday. Precipitable water values briefly climb to the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range Tuesday evening, and there might be a 3-4 hour window along the front where precipitation could occur. Rain amounts won't be heavy, but worthy of mention. Winds are likely to become gusty behind the front, and we could eventually need a Wind Advisory downwind of Lake Pontchartrain, but will holdoff on that for this package, as the main concern will be after sunrise Wednesday. Highs mid 70s to lower 80s for most areas this afternoon andareawide Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows mid 50s to lower 60s tonight, then mainly in the 50s tomorrow night. &&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday night)Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025Upper trough shifts eastward to New England by Friday, with upper flow remaining northwesterly across the local area. Another trough passes northeast of the area on Saturday. This could bring another cold front through the area Saturday or Saturday night, with a third one moving through early next week. Moisture is expected to be rather meager, and if any rain were to occur Saturday, it'd be extremely brief and light. Larger message for sensible weather is going to be much cooler temperatures. Very likely that most of the CWA won't get out of the 60s on Wednesday, with the exception possibly the New Orleans metro area, where northwest winds coming across the warmer waters of Lake Pontchartrain (water temp 74F this morning) may allow highs in the lower 70s. May need a wind advisory for portions of that area as well on Wednesday as noted in the short term section, but will hold off for one more forecast cycle. Thursday will also see highsin the 60s across the area. These will be the coolest days our area has seen since approximately April 7th. Temperatures will moderate somewhat for the weekend, with highs in the lower and middle 70s, which is actually pretty close to normal. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s Thursday morning through Saturday morning. It isn't out of the question that one or two of the normally cooler spots could briefly dip into the upper 30s Friday morning. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025VFR conditions in place with the exception of KMCB, where MVFR ceilings are occurring. Those should become scattered this afternoon. The overnight concern will be the potential for fog development around sunrise. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible, especially at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC/KASD/KHUM. Improvement expected around 14z Tuesday. &&.MARINE...Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025Brief respite from hazardous conditions today through Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the waters Tuesday night. Much colder and drier air will bring an increase in northwesterly winds late Tuesday night, with sustained winds approaching 30 knots as early as the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning. Likely to be a 24 to 30 hour period where frequent wind gusts to gale force will be possible over essentially all coastal waters. Not going to get cute with multiple start/end times, and have issued a Gale Watch from 09z Wednesday through 12z Thursday, Will likely need headlines beyond 12z Thursday (Small Craft Advisory, most likely) through the daytime hours Thursday, but we can deal with that in later packages. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 55 78 50 62 / 0 10 90 10 BTR 57 82 53 65 / 0 10 80 10 ASD 55 78 52 66 / 0 0 80 10 MSY 63 81 58 69 / 0 0 70 10 GPT 58 78 55 68 / 0 0 70 10 PQL 55 78 53 69 / 0 0 60 20 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...RWLONG TERM....RWAVIATION...RWMARINE...RW
